Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force. UPDATED 2013 Sept 22 0030 UTC .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was low. Region 1850 (N08E52, Dso/beta) continued to produce the only C-class events, the largest was a C3/1f x-ray event at 21/0924 UTC. The other five numbered regions indicated little change and were stable during the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to be low (Below R1-Minor) for the next three days (22 - 24 Sep). Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period with a peak flux of 2,810 pfu at 21/1805 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at moderate to high levels for the next three days (22 - 24 Sep) in response to recent coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to continue at background levels (Below S1-Minor) all three days of the forecast period. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind speeds, measured at the ACE spacecraft, continued to decrease from approximately 440 km/s to 405 km/s as CH HSS effects subside. The total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) varied between 3 - 4 nT while the Bz component of the IMF did not vary much beyond +/- 4 nT. The phi angle was in a predominately positive (away) orientation for throughout the period. .Forecast... Solar wind speeds are expected to continue to decrease on day one (22 Sep) as CH HSS effects subside. An increase in speeds is expected on days two and three (23 - 24 Sep) due to the combination of another recurrent CH HSS and possible weak effects from the 19 Sep CME. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field mostly quiet with an isolated unsettled period at 21/1200 UTC. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on day one (22 Sep). Quiet to unsettled conditions (Below G1-Minor) are expected on days two and three (23 - 24 Sep) with a slight chance for an isolated active period due to the onset of the next CH and possible weak effects from the 19 Sep CME.
Posted on: Sun, 22 Sep 2013 13:58:53 +0000
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