Probability Simon Greenleaf had this to say about probability: In all human transactions, the highest degree of assurance to which we can arrive, short of the evidence of our own senses, is that of probability. The most that can be asserted is, that the narrative [i.e., the Bible] is more likely to be truth than false; and it may be in the highest degree more likely, but still be short of absolute mathematical certainly. Yet this very probability may be so great as to satisfy the mind of the most cautious, and enforce the assent of the most reluctant and unbelieving. If it is such as usually satisfies reasonable men, in matters of ordinary transaction, it is all which the greatest skeptic has a right to require; for it is by such evidence alone that our rights are determined, in the civil tribunals; and on no other evidence do they proceed, even in capital cases. Greenleaf reminded us that people do not have infinite and absolute knowledge and therefore must accept or reject truth based on the evidence available. Furthermore, the probability of truth is based on the volume of evidence amassed for or against it. This is nowhere more evident than in religious truth. As Carnell put it, “Proof for the Christian faith, as proof for any worldview that is worth talking about, cannot rise above rational probability.… The more the evidence increases, the more the strength of probability increases.” To put it another way, the power of probability lies in its cumulative testimony. Here is a helpful illustration used by Ronald Nash, quoting from Richard Swinburne’s Existence of God: That Smith has blood on his hands hardly makes it probable that Smith murdered Mrs. Jones, nor (by itself) does the fact that Smith stood to gain from Mrs. Jones’ death, nor (by itself) does the fact that Smith was near the scene of the murder at the time of its being committed, but all these phenomena taken together (perhaps with other phenomena as well) may well indeed make the conclusion probable. The fact is, probability controls human actions in almost every area of life. Response to probability is so intrinsic to our human psyche that we take if for granted and seldom think about it. We automatically and subconsciously make decisions according to their probable outcome. The examples of this are endless. When we get into an automobile, we do not calculate our chance of having an accident—although we know that possibility is real. We do not turn on a light switch wondering if the power is on—although it may not be. We eat in restaurants trusting in the probability that what we eat is not poisonous. We drink water from the tap trusting that it is probably safe to drink. We marry on the probability that we will be compatible for life. Doctors prescribe medicine based on the probable outcome of their diagnoses. In no case can any of these decisions be based on absolute certainty. A hundred times a day we make decisions based on their probable outcome, all the while acting as if these decisions were at the level of absolute certainty. In sum, most of the actions we take and the decisions we make in our lives are grounded in our belief that the probable results are reliable and predictable. In our normal activities and decision making, we accept the probable just as readily and completely as we accept mathematical certainties. We rely on probability as absolute proof in the sense that we trust it and think of it as the highest level of certainty available to whatever truth question is at hand. This concept is so important to apologetic evangelism that I want to drive it home with two more illustrations. Story, D. (1998). Christianity on the offense: responding to the beliefs and assumptions of spiritual seekers (pp. 75–76). Grand Rapids, MI: Kregel Publications.
Posted on: Sat, 15 Mar 2014 14:50:08 +0000
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