Product: Forecast Discussion Issued: 2013 Aug 31 1230 UTC Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was very low. Region 1836 (N11E26, Eso/beta-gamma) developed trailer spots, but remained stable. Regions 1834 (N13W14, Csi/beta) and 1835 (S10W07, Dsc/beta) remained stable throughout the period. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be very low (Below R1-Minor) with a chance for C-class flare activity for the next three days (31 Aug - 02 Sep). Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels, reaching a peak flux value of 165 pfu at 30/1320 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to moderate levels for the next three days (31 Aug - 02 Sep) due to coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels (Below S1-Minor) for the next three days (31 Aug - 02 Sep). Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind, measured at the ACE spacecraft, remained slightly elevated between 400 km/s and 450 km/s due to continued CH HSS effects. Total field ranged between 3 nT and 10 nT with Bz varying between -8 and +5 nT. The phi angle was predominately positive during the period. .Forecast... Solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated on day one (31 Aug) with continued CH HSS influence, increasing to 550 km/s - 650 km/s on day two (01 Sep) with arrival of the 30 Aug CME. Wind speed is expected to remain enhanced, but to steadily decrease to near-background levels on day three (02 Sep) as CME effects diminish. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Active levels were observed during the 30/2100-2400 and the 31/0000-0300 UTC periods due to CH HSS activity. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions on day one (31 Aug) with CH HSS effects, increasing to unsettled to G1 levels on day two (01 Sep) with arrival of the 30 Aug CME. Quiet to active conditions are expected for day three (02 Sep) as CME influence subsides.
Posted on: Sat, 31 Aug 2013 14:05:21 +0000
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