Question: With many of the Class Is facing power shortages, what adjustments are made to keep shipments on time to customers? Answer: There are both tactical and strategic aspects to the answer. In the near-term, the railroads only have a few options to confront the current locomotive shortage: tighten up locomotive utility management (minimize locomotive dwell time, no motors allowed to sit unused, effective and efficient power balancing by moving units around the system just ahead of demand); get every available locomotive in good working order; acquire power from wherever they can get it (e.g., Norfolk Southern’s recent acquisition of several UP SD90MACs), including leasing more units. The locomotive shortage is due not so much to a decrease in the quantity of locomotives, rather an increase in demand (driven by unprecedented oil transport, record agricultural yields, and a healthy economy). This increased demand is placing strain on the entire system, not just locomotive inventory. What is really needed is more trains to move more stuff more quickly. The core problem is where to make these trains and how to wedge them into already tightly-packed traffic corridors? Classification yards need more available tracks to disassemble arriving trains, sort cars, and build outbound trains (see Norfolk Southern’s massive Bellevue Yard expansion). More switching means more switching locomotives and switching crews. The railroads also need to figure out how to insert more trains into their operating plans. It’s all most large terminals can do to depart their current line-up of scheduled trains each day; it’s going to be a real challenge to jam more departures in there. One thing the railroads will have to do is figure out how to take advantage of underutilized classification yards (which are, unfortunately, usually situated away from the main traffic lanes--perhaps like Detroit or Flint, MI—which is why they are underutilized). To the extent practical, the railroads will try to build and run trains as long as they can with available power, trying to minimize the need for extra trains (which consume additional locomotives and aggravate system power imbalances); this will be counteracted by the coming cold weather, which typically reduces maximum train lengths because they simply cannot hold air and achieve/maintain traction like they can in warmer weather. At the terminal level, superintendents and trainmasters will have to pay even more attention than usual to ensuring time-sensitive moves are prioritized—premium customers, auto parts, critical interchanges, etc. There will most definitely be increased pressure on local crews to get the entire job done during their shift—out and back to the yard, no going outlaw (running up against hours of service regulations), leaving a local out on a job half-finished. Locals can tie up a lot of locomotives if they don’t get done in the allotted time. If the Monday local doesn’t make it back to the yard, and there aren’t crews available, the Tuesday local will need another set of power and there will be an extra crew needed to go out and complete the Monday job and bring that train back. Strategically, the railroads will have to decide what they believe the long-term, sustainable demand trends are going to be, and make their capital investments accordingly—more and improved efficiency (and Tier 4 emissions compliant) locomotives, improved classification yard switching efficiency (break down, switch, and build trains faster), improved and expanded track and signaling to get more trains across the system, faster and more closely spaced (should be helped by Positive Train Control). All of the railroads and leasing companies are placing their strategic bets on equipment needs—tank cars, covered hoppers, well cars, etc. The railroad is an economic leading indicator. At the yard where I worked in late 2007 and early 2008, at the leading edge of the economic downturn (Great Recession), we saw a tremendous decline in the amount of traffic. No one was building anything, so precious little cement, lumber or steel was moving. No one was buying new cars. Our yard was barely half full at most. The railroad was storing (or scrapping) long strings of older locomotives and many hundreds (probably thousands) of autoracks and spine cars wherever they could find empty tracks. The railroads are working hard to position themselves to more flexibly and efficiently roll with the inevitable economic ups and downs without severely undershooting or overshooting their capacity (both very expensive problems). Railroaders, what specific changes have you seen on your jobs in response to increased capacity demand? Whats working and whats not? Thanks for asking. Stay safe out there. Here we go!
Posted on: Tue, 25 Nov 2014 00:04:30 +0000
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