Recipe for an APC win APC leaders express private doubts about whether Jega is really independent. Nevertheless, his efforts at INEC, combined with civil society support, could provide the required ingredients for an APC victory if the party gains backing from the northern governors to give it the national organisation it needs. Yet the hurdles are high. First and foremost stands the remarkable ability of the PDP to reinstall a modicum of party discipline, typically fuelled by the deep pockets of the presidency. Jonathan still has time to reach out to northern leaders and negotiate a new deal with enough governors, although that could be difficult. PDP organisers could take advantage of the heavy military presence in the north-east to interfere with election outcomes there. More promising for the President is the tenuous thread upon which the APC merger hangs – the agreement between Tinubu and Buhari. Their alliance fell apart in 2011 and could well fray again as difficult choices over candidates and policy direction will have to be made. Tinubu has also shown a willingness to work with the PDP in the past, so he may be amenable to PDP overtures – or simply stay at home for the presidential election – if Buhari proves too difficult. All this focussing on the presidential election, however, obscures other issues for the APC and its countrywide reach. The opposition now has enough organisations in many of the states to contemplate a more comprehensive strategy. If it does not employ all its energy on winning the presidency, the APC could prepare a Plan B in case Jonathan outmanoeuvres it in 2015. It might add more state governorships and reach 18 or 19 states. That would give it a powerful base from which to take the presidency in 2019. Such advance planning would be untypical of senior politicians but if they can stitch together a viable opposition, they will need a far more strategic approach from now on.
Posted on: Tue, 09 Jul 2013 02:44:19 +0000
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