Reunion estimated that Hellen had winds of 125 kts and a pressure of 925 at 18z. This makes it the first so called very intense tropical cyclone since Bruce earlier this season. However before we all get too excited and blown away we have to remember to tell the inhabitants of North-West Madagascar and the Comoros Archipelago and Mayotte to prepare for a very significant system. GIVEN THE PAST TRACK OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS MORE SOUTH-EASTERN THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, THE LIKELIHOOD IS INCREASING FOR AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE LANDFALL OVER THE NORTHWESTERN COASTLINE OF MADAGASCAR BETWEEN CAPE SAINT-ANDRE AND MAHAJONGA. GIVEN THIS POSSIBILITY, THE RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE STORM SURGE NWP HAS BEEN RUN THAT SHOWS PHENOMENAL SEA ELEVATIONS IN THE AREA EXPOSED TO THE NORTHERLY WINDS (EAST OF THE FORECAST TRACK). THIS POTENTIALLY STRENGTHEN AREA IS VERY SENSITIVE BECAUSE ITS BATHYMETRY (PLATEAU) AND STORM SURGE COULD REACH BETWEEN 2M AND 4M IN THE ESTUARY OF THE BETSIBOKA RIVER (MAHAJONGA), MORE THAN 7M IN THE BAY OF BALY (SOALALA) AND BETWEEN 1M AND 4M ON THE COASTLINE EAST OF CAPE SAINT-ANDRE.ALL PREPARATIONS FOR A WORST CASE SCENARIO SHOULD BE UNDERWAY AFTER MONDAY, THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. HELLEN IS THEREFORE EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN CLEARLY. BEFORE RE-CURVING WESTWARDS THEN SOUTH-WESTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REBUILDING SOUTHWARD. IF AN OVERLAND TRACK OVER THE NORTHWESTERN MADAGASCAR OCCURS, IT SHOULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO BE BACK OVERSEA AT A SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY. HELLEN SHOULD KEEP ON TRACKING ON THIS WEST-SOUTH-WEST PATH UP TO A NEW LANDFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY ON THE MOZAMBICAN COASTLINES IN THE AREA OF QUELIMANE. GIVEN THE VICINITY OF THE COMOROS ARCHIPELAGO AND MAYOTTE, THE INHABITANTS OF THIS ISLANDS SHOULD STILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS Link to full advisory: weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/wt/wtio30.fmee..txt
Posted on: Sun, 30 Mar 2014 19:37:10 +0000
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