Ronald QuillianIt used to be that the media would reconcile such claims ---but now all we have are mostly-crappy fact checks with Pinocchio counts.We are advised that the NOAA report is more comprehensively correct. (Cross-posted from Coyoteblog). See Reconciling Conflicting Climate Claims/Climate Skeptic). The NOAA temperature data for the globe does indeed show May and June as the hottest on record. However, the two monthly records do not change the trend over the last 10-15 years which has basically been flat. We are hitting records because we are sitting on a data-plateau that is higher than the rest of the century in the NOAA data. Satellite data bases which have no similar adjustment issues have shown warming, at least between1979 and 1999.This entry was posted in Temperature Measurement on July 28, 2014 [climate-skeptic/2014/07/2368.html]. Like · More · 6 hours ago Hootie JohnstonFor years now alarmists have been screaming that a-co2 DRIVES global warming (or have they given up on that line of BS?) By NASAs own numbers 2014 was maybe 0.07 degrees C warmer than the previously hottest year (maybe it 2010, maybe 2005 maybe before they had digital satellites measuring such trivialities), But given that there have been BILLIONS, maybe Tens of BILLIONS of tonnes of a-co2 released into the atmosphere... and 4-10 years there is NO DISCERNIBLE increase in temperatures... NASA has bailed on the hoax and have revealed it all in one press release that you useful idiots have jumped all over as some sort of Pyrrhic victory Like · · More · 6 hours ago Maurice H Rich‘Warmest year’, ‘pause’, and all that judithcurry/2015/01/16/warmest-year-pause-and-all-that/ Berkeley Earth has published a nice analysis of their 2014 data [link]. Summary of their main findings: 1. The global surface temperature average for 2014 was nominally the warmest since the global instrumental record began in 1850; however, within the margin of’error, it’s tied with 2005 and 2010 and so we can’t be certain it set a new record. 2. For the land, 2014 was nominally the 4th warmest year since 1753 3. For the sea, 2014 was the warmest year on record since 1850 4. For the contiguous United States, 2014 ranked nominally as the 38th warmest year on record since 1850. The margin of uncertainty we achieved was remarkably small (0.05C with 95% confidence).This was achieved, in part, by the inclusion of data from over 30,000 temperature stations, and by the use of optimized statistical methods. Even so, the highest year could not be distinguished. That is, of course, an indication that the Earth’s average temperature for the last decade has changed very little. Meanwhile, the ‘warmest year’ is noticeably missing in the satellite data sets of lower atmospheric temperatures. Roy Spencer reports that 2014 was third warmest year since 1979, but just barely. Bottom line Berkeley Earth sums it up well with this statement: That is, of course, an indication that the Earth’s average temperature for the last decade has changed very little. The key issue remains the growing discrepancy between the climate model projections and the observations: 2014 just made the discrepancy larger. Speculation about ‘warmest year’ and end of ‘pause’ implies a near term prediction of surface temperatures – that they will be warmer. I’ve made my projection – global surface temperatures will remain mostly flat for at least another decade. However, I’m not willing to place much $$ on that bet, since I suspect that Mother Nature will manage to surprise us. (I will be particularly surprised if the rate of warming in the next decade is at the levels expected by the IPCC.) Sometimes you just have to Quote Berkeley. Berkeley Earth has published a nice analysis of their 2014 data [link]. static.berkeleyearth.org/memos/Global-Warming-2014-Berkeley-Earth-Newsletter.pdf Summary of their main findings: 1. The global surface temperature average for 2014 was nominally the warmest since the global instrumental record began in 1850; however, within the margin of’error, it’s tied with 2005 and 2010 and so we can’t be certain it set a new record. 2. For the land, 2014 was nominally the 4th warmest year since 1753 3. For the sea, 2014 was the warmest year on record since 1850 4. For the contiguous United States, 2014 ranked nominally as the 38th warmest year on record since 1850. judithcurry/2015/01/16/warmest-year-pause-and-all-that/ Mind you Shea, therell be frothing at the mouth & crazy screaming, ranting & raving interspersed with all sorts of abusive Ad Hominem because of reference to Berkeley findings & their summary via Judith Curry, so directly from Berkeley, their summary right up front => static.berkeleyearth.org/memos/Global-Warming-2014-Berkeley-Earth-Newsletter.pdf Roy W Spencers summary of Satellite data => 2014 was Third Warmest Year Since 1979, but Just Barely (with input from John Christy and Phil Gentry) drroyspencer/2015/01/uah-global-temperature-update-for-december-2014-0-32-deg-c/ “I think it is a mistake to focus on single years, whether they be cold or hot. Other than that, I have no particular opinion.” – Kerry Emanuel, professor of atmospheric science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Don’t focus on global temperature Although the global temperature is being reported as the warmest on record, that was NOT true for much of the lower-48 states. In fact, the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. was below normal, with unusually cold temperatures over the Northern Plains and around the Great Lakes. Warmer than normal temperatures were centered over California and the Desert Southwest. The moral of the story is that global warming is never globally uniform, with varying areas experiencing profoundly different extremes.” – Cliff Mass, professor of atmospheric sciences, University of Washington “There remain significant uncertainties in the accuracy of the land portion of the surface temperature data, where we have found a significant warm bias. Thus, the reported global average surface temperature anomaly is also too warm.” “More generally, we need to move beyond just assessing global warming, but examine how (and if) key atmospheric and ocean circulations, such as El Nino, La Nina, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, ect are changing in their intensity, structure and frequency. These are the climate features that determine if a region has drought, floods, and so forth, not a global average surface temperature anomaly.” – Roger Pielke, Sr., professor of atmospheric science, Colorado State University Recent warming trends are less than forecast by computer models “With 2014 essentially tied with 2005 and 2010 for hottest year, this implies that there has been essentially no trend in warming over the past decade. This ‘almost’ record year does not help the growing discrepancy between the climate model projections and the surface temperature observations.” – Judith Curry, professor in school of earth and atmospheric sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology “Whether or not a given year is a hundredth of a degree or so above a previous record is not the issue. What IS the issue is how observed temperatures compare to what has been forecast to happen.” “John Christy and Richard McNider, from University of Alabama (Huntsville) recently compared climate model projections to observed lower atmospheric temperatures as measured by two independent sources: satellites and weather balloons. They found that the average warming predicted to have occurred since 1979 (when the satellite data starts) is approximately three times larger than what is being observed.” – Pat Michaels, director of the Center for the Study of Science at the Cato Institute “The satellite and balloon data of the deep atmosphere have 2014 in a cluster of warmish years well below the hottest two of 1998 and 2010. With the government agencies reporting that the surface temperature as highest ever, we have a puzzle. The puzzle is even more puzzling because theory (i.e. models) indicate the opposite should be occurring – greater warmth in the deep atmosphere than the surface. So, there are just many very basic and fundamental aspects of the global climate we have yet to comprehend.” John Christy, professor of atmospheric sciences, University of Alabama-Huntsville Warmest year, pause, and all that judithcurry Like · · More · 5 hours ago
Posted on: Mon, 19 Jan 2015 02:28:11 +0000
Trending Topics
Recently Viewed Topics
© 2015