SOMALILAND ON ELUSIVE SEARCH FOR SECESSION On the outset, I am proud to say that, it was me who have suggested negotiations with Somaliland and included in the transitional federal charter at Somali National Peace Conference in Nairobi, Kenya. To my surprise, I didn’t get support from the 23 leaders who were the signatories (i.e., I chose peace and was sitting in Muse Sudi Yalahow’s place who has left the conference) but my relentless insistence on the issue I did get support from Hassan Abshir Farah, then Prime Minister of Transitional National Government (TNG) who was chairing the our meeting. Nonetheless, the search for the Federal Government to find a lasting solution for Somaliland’s problems and keep it in the country is critical national interest in order to maintain Somali Republic’s unity and territorial which is sacred. The question, is how the push for secession came about? As you all remember, there was no article of secession in the Somali National Movement (SNM) Charter and also previous conferences at Borame and Berbera after the collapse of Somali government were never intended for secession but for the formation of a local administrations and unity with the South only after it is stabilized. On the contrary, there was the tripartite agreement between Gen. Mohamed Farah Aideed, Abdirahman Ahmed Ali “Abdirahman Tuur” and Col. Ahmed Omer Jess to curve up the country into three political spheres that they control but the plan has failed to materialize. In this regard, Abfdirahman Tuur and his group in reaction to the failure of the plan have announced unexpectedly the secession of the North from the South at Burao conference which was then a departure from SNM Charter and previous conferences. On the other hand, to his credit Abdirahman Tuur, the architect of secession has renounced and distanced himself from the secession as cause before he died which is commendable. Later, Abdirahman Tuur and Col. Ahmed Omer Jess and their clan followers joined Gen. Mohamed Farah Aideed’s Somali National Alliance (SNA) which has disintegrated at the end but now majority of its members hold key positions in the current Federal Government. Also, Mohamed Ibrahim Egal, a true Statesman with international stature from the north who has served the Civilian Government in different capacities and became the last Prime Minister of Somali Republic before the military coup and he has never embraced secession as cause before and after he became the president of Somaliland. Also, there are UN Security Council Resolutions, the League of Arab States (LAS) and the Organisation of Islamic Conference (OIC) that are all legally bidding resolutions and conflicting with secession of Somaliland and yet confirm Somali Republic’s territorial integrity, unity and political independence etc. Thus, call me arrogant or shaman yet I can guarantee you that Somaliland will never secede from Somali Republic even if its secessionist authorities who keep their heads burying in the sand shout from mountain tops with cross purposes and double talk as they have been doing for last two decades in their quest for an elusive secession. Regions, in Somaliland are not homogenous in relation to their clan affiliations like Puntland but it has diverse clans which are its strength but yet they hold different views when it comes to the question of secession which is the only option left if the current negotiations fail. Consequently, any secession of Somaliland will be preceded by a referendum to decide its future and for the sake of argument let us assume that, the Federal Government and Somaliland Regional Authorities agree on the matter, in the face of the fact that the Act of Union outlaws such an exercise. Now, what is the threshold for referendum to be valid and acceptable? Is it a simple majority of 50+1 of the population to vote for secession? Or is it necessary to have a bigger margin of 60-70 percent of the population to vote for secession? Who will participate in the referendum? Is it for the whole population of Somali Republic to take part in the referendum or just for those living in Somaliland regions? What happens in case of low turn-out for the referendum, say below 50 percent of the potential population? What happens to those regions, districts and villages whose populations have voted for Somali unity in referendum while the majority voted for secession? Suffice, to say any referendum for secession will put Somaliland into a tail-spin, an ocean of precarious journey with uncertainty and unattainable future for the people of northern regions. Plus, Somaliland authorities cannot impose their will for secession on those who have voted for unity to join with the Somali Republic and thus the Federal Government cannot turn its back on those who have voted for Somali Unity. Equally, important is that, if Somali Republic can be broken up, so shall be Somaliland. Why not? Adding up, I believe that, the more Somaliland Authorities insist on secession and the more it holds out and drags its feet on unity will only prolong the inevitable, and in the process it will lose its bargaining power to negotiate with the Federal Government. On the other hand, Somaliland Authorities are ill-advised to dismiss or ignore Somalia’s Partners and refuse to participation of conferences when they are invited. Believe me you, our sovereign interests lay with our Partners who have invested so much needed finances, energy time and manpower to solve the country’s problems and surely committed not to allow their efforts in Somalia to see it fail again. What is the way-forward? In my opinion, to improve security and stability in the country and have clan accord and harmony and to live in peace in particular Somaliland, we must revisit the 18 regions politically formed by gen. Mohamed Siad Barre that segregates Somalis into “clan ghettos” which are not compatible to the establishment of all-inclusive regional administrations or a nation state based on national agenda in the 21st Century. Regrettably, the Interim Draft Constitution supports this clan ghetto mentality suggesting two or more regions can form a regional state which can’t be a criterion to form all-inclusive regional administrations while leaving out a more important and a solid criterion that is the clan make-up of each regional administration etc. How, could they miss the President and his staff, the Speaker and the Parliament and the Prime Minister and his Cabinet to include in the interim draft constitution an important criterion such as inclusivity and clan diversity? How about Hawiye-land, Darood-land, Dir-land and Digil and Mirifle land? Will this solve Somalia’s problems? I guess, not. In any case, we must revert back to the previous eight (8 regions) regions with adjustments in view of demographic change to facilitate negotiations of the Federal Government and Somaliland, federation of the country, demarcation of borders between regional states, national census to phase out Somali Clan Formula of 4.5 and limit the number regional administrations to avoid regional clan enclaves based solely on one clan but different communities organized in a national manner in each regional state administration. In conclusion, it is preferable South-North Confederation as equal partners to achieve New Act of Union for power-sharing and re-constitute Somali Republic and also this will be acceptable to non-Isaaq clans i.e., Dhulmahante, Gadabuursi, Warsengelli and Isse who stand for Somali Unity which will make Somaliland secession impractical. This is not to suggest that all Isaaq people are for secession. I know many great patriots of Isaaq who are unionists and die for Somali Unity. Federation or Confederation, will also pave the way for the eventual re-unification of all Somali people and their territories in order to achieve the Greater Somalia starting with Djibouti, Somali-West and Northern Frontier District (NFD) respectively. This is our goal, the absorption of all Somali people and their territories under one flag and under one government where our true destiny lay. This goal had struck most Somalis as logical, even reasonable and we hope that our Partners concur with us which are where the true destiny of Somali people lay in the future to have peace, security and stability in the region. Who could blame us trying to regain what rightfully had always been ours? Dr. Abdi Ulusso
Posted on: Mon, 30 Sep 2013 08:52:17 +0000
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