SPC AC 030541 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER - TopicsExpress

SPC AC 030541 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1241 AM CDT FRI OCT 03 2014 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST FRIDAY. A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...GULF COAST STATES AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. ...SYNOPSIS... A SYNOPTIC TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE U.S. FRIDAY. EMBEDDED WITHING THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH A VORTICITY MAXIMUM CURRENTLY OVER THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT EJECTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES EARLY IN THE DAY. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM A SFC LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES SWD THROUGH THE WRN TN VALLEY INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE EWD...REACHING THE ATLANTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ACCOMPANYING UPPER JET WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS...BUT FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES SHOULD REMAIN POST FRONTAL. ...SERN STATES INTO SRN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY... STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING 12Z FRIDAY FROM SRN MS NWD INTO ERN TN AND KY. ACTIVITY WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER WINDS AND VERTICAL SHEAR...BUT THE WEAK THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL. THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY UNDERGO A MODEST INCREASE...MAINLY OVER A PORTION OF THE SERN STATES FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHERE DIABATIC WARMING WILL DESTABILIZE THE SFC LAYER AND BOOST MLCAPE TO 500-800 J/KG. AT THIS TIME THE OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR A CATEGORICAL RISK AREA. ..DIAL/MOSIER.. 10/03/2014