SUMMER OUTLOOKS ARE DIFFERENT THAN DAY-TO-DAY FORECASTS: From my original blog post: Actual day to day weather forecasts are developed with analyzing current conditions, radar, satellite and other parameters to make a forecast for a short period of time in the future. 12 Hours, 24 hours, 36 hours, 48 hours. We utilize computer model projections as guidance. Yes, these projections are getting better as more data is utilized and plugged into faster and faster computers with more sophisticated equations. Seasonal long range outlooks (winter weather forecast, etc) are created by looking at the ocean sea surface temperature patterns (El Nino, etc), pressure patterns over the Arctic and North Atlantic among some others. Some scientists use solar output and other variables. The elements just mentioned are matched up with other years of occurrence. A best possible fit is created. Sometimes this works out well. Sometimes it doesn’t. Again, this is a trend outlook not a specific forecast for a specific day. Individual storms cannot be forecasted this far out. But by looking at parameters that existed in the past during other storm events, we can say that the chance of say a hurricane making landfall is greater this year than in years past. For most, all of these forecasts and trend outlooks are lumped into one group. Yet each are derived using entirely different information. Its human nature to generalize and simplify complicated subjects like the science of weather prediction. So as a result, we formulate a concrete, black and white, overly scaled down version of the weather. Whether its a long range winter outlook, a climate average for a wedding day or the thunderstorm chances for later this afternoon or a hurricane forecast track. Its all the same animal to most! We subconsciously eliminate the nebulous science, weird looking equations, fancy computer stuff in favor of a narrative that tells a better story. In short, The Old Farmers’ Almanac fits with how our brains are wired. Its simple. Its folksy with just enough science to make it credible. Why do we continue believing the Old Farmers’ Almanac? The simple answer is it makes us feel good!
Posted on: Fri, 25 Apr 2014 10:42:12 +0000
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