Salam Tensions are rising between Europe-USA and Russia-China. It has implications for the whole world including Pakistan. Here are my two cents on this subject. Please share your feedback and comments. Twin cold wars by Abdul Quayyum Khan Kundi There is a famous saying that history repeats itself. The average cycle of this historic repetition is a generation or 30 years. In foreign policy circles there is talk of re-emergence of cold war era which ended almost 25 years ago. But this time there will not be one but two cold wars i.e. between US-Russia and US-China. Some argue that this argument is not valid as the last cold war was an ideological struggle between ideologies of communism and capitalism. But this argument is invalid since Russian President Putin made it an ideological struggle by rejecting gay rights and public obscenity in television programs. He also aligned himself with Russian Orthodox Church to offer an alternative to protestant and catholic persuasions of Europe. In China there is growing discussion on adopting Confucian principles in the social architecture and reviving the cultural heritage based on these teachings. There will also be differences in these twin cold wars. The struggle with Russia will be a little warmer involving non-state actors in Eastern Europe and Russian Caucus region of Chechnya and Dagestan. Ukraine in a way will become a new Afghanistan for Russia and a frontline state in a new great game for dominance of Eurasia. West will continue to lure Russia to invade Ukraine by gradually encroaching on her strategic interests. This will tempt the strongman Putin to either respond or lose legitimacy at his home base as a protector of the motherland. If he responds and enters Eastern Ukraine then a local guerilla fight sponsored and promoted by the West. This could inflict thousand wounds on the Russian bear as happened earlier in the history in Afghanistan. It will also impose backbreaking economic costs on Russian economy which still largely relies on commodity exports. China may offer an alternate market but it is not a replacement for Europe. Russia needs European technology to run many of its industries including oil and gas. The Plan B scenario is that Russia does not take the bait and do not enter Eastern Europe. In that case NATO and EU will try to strengthen its economic and security ties with Ukraine which will force the Russians to respond be engaging in an expensive arms race. Covert Russian involvement in Eastern Europe to counter EU will also hurt its own social and economic stability. NATO has recently opened discussions with Sweden and Finland to formally join as member states. Russia can take an aggressive postures and try to put pressure on NATO alliance by moving her forces closer to smaller states of Estonia and Latvia. These member states have already expressed fear that they may be a victim of Russian aggression if tensions are not reduced. This a risky strategy and could result in an armed conflict destabilizing both Europe and Central Asia. The best option for Russia is to seek an agreement with Europe that they should mutually recognize each other’s interest and agree on a new status quo. Europe should promise not to open membership negotiations with Ukraine or sign a trade pact while Russia will not incorporate it in its own Eurasian customs union. This may be beneficial for EU as it has to work out its own structural and economic issues after the rise of the right wing Euro-sceptic parties in the recent elections. But US may object to it as there is no strategic advantage for her in this scenario. US would want to continue the military pressure on Russia to prevent it from gaining economic strength and political stability. The cold war with China is a different matter altogether. Few years ago American think tanks proposed to US policy makers that one way to arrest China’s economic rise to increase her cost of security. The objective of raising tensions in the South China seas; nominating Chinese military officers as cyber criminals; and promoting Japan as an emerging arms supplier in South East Asia seems to be part of this strategy. The struggle with China will be colder than the one with Russia. It will involve gaining satellites in the region as well as placement of strategic military bases to create a military edge. US has security arrangements with South Korea, Japan, Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Philippines. China still does not have a military parity with USA. To remove this imbalance China has grown its military spending by an average of 40% per year in last five years. At about 132 billion dollars, budgeted for 2014 it is still no match for US spending of around 716 billion dollars, in 2013, even after recent reductions. The second piece of American strategy is to reduce its reliance on Chinese manufactured products. USA is seeking Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement with ASEAN countries. It may also use low cost production in India and Vietnam to offset any loss of production in China. It is important to analyze the foreign policy of two emerging players India and Turkey which will decide the future outlook of these cold wars. Rise of Modi could mean that India may come closer to Russia rather than remain strategic ally of USA. India would seek trade cooperation with China and security cooperation with Russia. PM Modi may seek to revive the Indian influence in Non-Alliance Movement (NAM) and use it a platform for her strategic interests. Turkey is once again behaving in a confused manner as it did during First World War about hundred years ago. At that time it sent mixed signals to Germany, England and Russia. PM Erdogan has occasionally expressed his displeasure with NATO’s inability to support Turkish policy in Syrian crisis. Turkey has also expressed a desire to join Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) sponsored by China and Russia. This seems unlikely as SCO is a competing platform to reduce the influence of NATO in Eurasian region. Turkey’s on again off again membership negotiations are at a standstill for almost a decade. What are the options for Pakistan? Pakistan has to carefully devise its foreign policy and not become client of any one power in the region. Pakistan should become active in NAM to become a significant player in this second largest multilateral platform after UN. It is unfortunate that Pakistan could not attend the 17th Ministers meeting of NAM in Algiers at the end of May. The window of opportunity for Pakistan is small as Indian PM Modi may be planning to use this platform to further his regional ambitions. Pakistan should improve its relations with all neighbors especially Afghanistan and Iran. She should play the role of a bridge between Middle East and Iran. Pakistan should work with Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia to re-organize the Organization of Islamic Conference. Pakistan should negotiate a free trade agreement with Turkey as well as revive the now defunct tripartite Regional Cooperation for Development (RCD) along with Iran. This can be accomplished in return for supporting Turkish candidacy for the permanent member status in UN Security Council. Pakistan cannot afford to operate with a part time Foreign Minister. It is important that a full time Foreign Minister is appointed as soon as possible. Sartaj Aziz and Tariq Fatemi both have good experience in dealing with foreign policy and should be given a chance to serve.
Posted on: Wed, 04 Jun 2014 17:21:29 +0000
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