Say prayers for the Four State Area of NE, KS, MO, and IA. They - TopicsExpress

Say prayers for the Four State Area of NE, KS, MO, and IA. They are going to need it.... 1) While I am in basic agreement with the SPC Moderate Risk zone, I think that the KS/NE border counties need inclusion, as well as NW MO (say St. Joseph and Gallatin). The surface low and frontal structure may get as far north as Interstate 80 for a time tonight, so Grand Island, Omaha and even Des Moines need to be monitored for tornadic threats. The best potential for tornadoes....McCook NE....Lincoln NE....Lamoni IA. 2) I am fairly certain that we will see at least an MCS formation from this event, and quite possibly a full-blown derecho. The latter designation occurs IF the surface low and thunderstorm group become vertically aligned with the upper air impulse. Remember that a -true- derecho event occurs when the convection operates on a 24 hour basis, neither nocturnal or diurnal. If so, the Louisville KY....Cincinnati OH....Huntington WV axis (75 miles either side) is in big trouble tomorrow. 3) Thunderstorms are already firing in NE. Lets see how this scenario unfolds.

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