Sea Level Predictions Versus Sea Level Truth -- ALARMIST: someone who is considered to be exaggerating a danger and so causing needless worry or panic. Actual sea level rises to date, may be somewhere between 1.4mm per year (Sceptic scientists) and 1.7mm per year (IPCC position). In calculating the prediction errors, the IPCC figure has been used. The errors would be larger if the sceptical scientists figure was used. These figures assume that the natural sea rises are included in their predictions. 1. IPCC First Report (1990-1992), Summary for Policy Makers, p.52. Sea levels will rise by one metre by the year 2100 (110 years-times). This is 9.1mm per year. Error to date is 535% 2. IPCC Second Report (1995), Summary for Policy Makers, p.23. Sea levels will rise by 95cm by the year 2100 (105 years-times). This is 9.0mm per year. Error to date is 532% 3. IPCC Third Report (2001), Summary for Policy Makers, p.32. Sea levels will rise by 88cm by the year 2100 (99 years-times). This is 8.9mm per year. Error to date is 523% 4. IPCC Fourth Report (2007), Summary for Policy Makers, p.7-8. Sea levels will rise by 59cm by the year 2100 (93 years-times). This is 6.3mm per year. Error to date is 373% 5. United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP) in 1988 predicted sea levels would rise two metres by the year 2100 (112 years-time). This is 17.9mm per year. Error to date is 1,050% 6. Al Gore and his NASA scientific advisor James Hansen predicted sea levels would rise six metres by 2050 in 1988, a metre each decade (62 years-time), with the Florida Keys being one metre under water by the year 2000.. This is 96.8mm per year. Error to date is 5,693% 7. NSW Councils (e.g. Gosford, quoting the best international scientists including CSIRO and ANU) in 1995 was advising residents with water front properties that by 2015 (20 years-time) sea levels would rise by 6 metres. This is 300mm per year. Error to date is 17,647% 8. NSW Councils (e.g. Gosford, quoting the best international scientists including CSIRO and ANU) in 2011 was advising residents with water front properties that by 2100 (89 years-time) sea levels would rise by 90cm. This is 10.1mm per year. Error to date is 595%% 9. United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP) in 1995 predicted sea levels rises would result in 50 million climate refugees by the year 2010. No climate refugees by that year. Very large Error 10. United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP) in 2011 re-predicted sea levels rises would result in 50 million climate refugees by the year 2020. This is likely to be another - Very large Error 11. For the last twenty years the Greens and their scientists have been telling us the islands of the Tuvalu and Maldives were sinking into the ocean. In 2011 aerial photographs taken 60 years apart show the land area of all Tuvalu islands have grown by 5-30%. No discernible change in the Maldives. Very large Error 12. In 2005, Professor Flannery, a climate advisor to the Australian Government, predicted Sydney would be covered by 20 metres of water by the year 2050 (45 years-times). This is 444mm per year. Error to date is 26,144%
Posted on: Wed, 18 Jun 2014 20:49:07 +0000
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