Small swings usually make a big difference in Kerala. Among India’s most politically conscious States, Kerala is polarised between the Left Democratic Front led by the Communist Party of India (Marxist) and the United Democratic Front led by the Congress, and one’s loss is almost inevitably the other’s gain. Mistakes in candidate selection or campaign management at the level of constituencies could often make the difference between victory and defeat. Indeed, going by recent history, any result is possible in the 2014 Lok Sabha election: a landslide for the UDF or for the LDF, or a close finish. In 2004, the LDF swept the polls winning 18 of the 20 seats; five years later, the UDF won 16. But only a count of two seats separated the winner, the UDF, and the loser in the 2011 Assembly election. The swings in terms of vote percentages are not as dramatic as the big differences in the number of seats seen in some elections. In any case, these are not indicative of any serious long-term shifts in voter preferences. As with many small States, the floating voters, who are also those most desirous of change, play a decisive role in Kerala. With coalition politics firmly entrenched here, the choice before the voters is limited.
Posted on: Mon, 24 Mar 2014 13:38:17 +0000