Some of my co-workers started a conversation with me today about the situation in the Ukraine. Generally it was their view that the US should be involved. They claim that President Putin is unpredictable and dangerous and the US being the only Superpower has the obligation to oppose Russias perceived power/land grab. It is NOT my view that the US should be involved. This is how we get the criticism and disdain of the world. Situation happens, US is called on (by EU, UN, etc) to assist or take control. Be the world policemen. US gets involved and then is called evil by the same people who said the US had an obligation to get involved. My response: 1) This should be primarily be an EU led effort because it is western Europe which is most affected in an economic sense. Europe is highly dependent on oil from Russia which is pipelined through the Ukraine. This whole situation began because the desire of the Ukrainian people wanting to have closer economic and development ties to the EU. 2) President Putin is not unpredictable. In my view everything he has ever done has two overarching strategic goals: 1) He wants a strong Russia (militarily, politically and economically). 2) He wants to be the leader of that strong Russia. (in whatever form/position possible) 3) President Putin is dangerous. Dangerous because in his efforts to accomplish his strategic goals, he doesnt give a shit about anyone elses opinion. If the U.S., NATO, or EU disagrees with his actions/decisions; that matters not at all to him. Hes going to do what he wants, period. The U.S. cannot realistically do anything about it. The EU doesnt have the organization or military capability to respond with any real meaning. Plus the fact that Russia can (and just might) turn off the oil tap if the EU does anything that might detract Putin from him goals. Boots-on-the-ground is not an option; way too volatile and dangerous for an out of control escalation. Violent action of any sort from the West is really not a solution. Sanctions will not work because Russia controls the pipelines. Theyll just sell to someone else. They are too big geographically and economically to control in any practical sense. Should the West just give up? No. However, there most likely is a diplomatic solution. There is something that Putin will want that could entice him to back-down without losing face. Remember, he is a proud guy. Forcing him in any direction will most likely not end well. In my opinion, Putin felt threatened that the Ukraine would align itself with the EU. He sees this as a loss of influence, degradation of Russian power/control. We know from recent (past 60 years or so) that Russia is paranoid about feeling surrounded by potential adversaries. The whole idea of the Eastern European Satellite communist countries was meant as a buffer zone between Russia and Western Europe. The fall of communism only increased this paranoia. We know that Russia has extremely strong objections to missile defense capabilities being placed in Poland and Romania. Despite assurances that the intent is not meant as a defensive or offensive capability against Russia. Imagine if the Ukraine were part of the EU or even NATO, Russia would automatically be concerned of missile defense capabilities being placed there as well. I could see a situation developing where a civil war breaks out because 1/2 the country wants to be part of Russia or aligned with Russia. Russia could just then say, Hey we are only helping out the people who want us here!. Crimea is a test to see how far they can take it.
Posted on: Tue, 11 Mar 2014 11:35:43 +0000
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