Something positive to look at: Well, the atmospheric conditions are far different with HAGUPIT as compared to HAIYAN. And mostly due to the advanced time into the autumn season this time around. A NE surge associated with an incoming trough (cold front) is expected create a great deal of VWS for HAGUPIT starting in about 24 hours. That didnt happen with HAIYAN. Another hindering factor is as the system gets closer, interaction with land areas will take a bit out of it as well. The difference in track should be noted, because that is very important. HAIYAN came right up out of the ITCZ region at 10N just hours before landfall. SSTs are lower as you travel north from 10N, and in November are still pretty warm. We are in December, where that 1-2C difference can mean everything to a tropical system. HAGUPIT is already N of the 10N parallel and continues to increase latitude. Waters are already a little bit cooler this time of year. With the forecasted slowing of HAGUPIT in the SAT/SUN 24 hour period, enough mixing will take place to further cool the SSTs, and help cut off some of the energy necessary to support intensification.
Posted on: Thu, 04 Dec 2014 15:49:20 +0000
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