Something very bizarre is happening in Somalia. Sentiments similar to that of 1990’s clannish-oriented antagonism, which had pitted the nation against each other in a bloody civil war, are surfacing again. The Somali Federal Government and its leader, Hassan Sheikh Mahmoud, appear to have been discredited by Kismayo infighting that started on June 07. In the midst of an electrified atmosphere in Kismayo, the Federal Government seems inactive at best and divisive agent at worst. President Mahmoud, unable to offer constructive policy plan, has mustered up a hollow statement of no substance wished desperately to mollify jarring emotions. In the face of a deep-seated mistrust among Somali clans coupled with accusations of fueling the conflict leveled at the Federal Government, Mahmoud’s pleas are preposterous. While the conflict is unlikely to topple the Federal Government based in Mogadishu, it will certainly throw an element of doubt into its political competency. If Kismayo’s case is poorly managed (facts on the ground already point to this direction), the ripple effects of the crisis could morph into across-the board disasters that could aggravate clan-loaded relations among Somali clans; it could also kill in its infancy, the long-awaited negotiation process intended to narrow more than two-decades-long Somali-British-Somali-Italian gap. Never the Somali people have predicted Sheikh Mahmoud, a man many Somalis were enchanted by his clean record and his community activism, would falter in his first national task. Somali people, as a result, are utterly and entirely disappointed! To date, Mahmoud exuded an image of a genuine statesman that has certainly been unseen in Somali history since perhaps the late Adam Abdulle Osman, Somalia’s first President: he has had a real showdown with an almighty international community accustomed micromanaging Somali politics and more often in pursuit of unscrupulous interests; he condemned corruption and avowed to curtail it—a phenomenon described by UN reports to have degraded Somalia’s last government; Somalia under his leadership has gained an international traction, including a most sought-after United States of America recognition; add to this, Mahmoud’s latest ingenious move, the initiation of a negotiation process with breakaway Somaliland, to end more than two decades of standoff between the South and the North. By all indications, this is not only an ingenious move but one that has garnered a great deal of public support that would have galvanized the whole nation behind Mahmoud had it yielded fruits. Then came Jubaland crisis. The crisis, according to Raskambooni Militia in Kismayo’s version has been engineered by the Somali Federal Government in revenge against Jubaland people for ignoring meddling and forming their local administration. To the Somali Federal Government, however, the crisis started as a result of grievances concerning unfair political dispensation felt by huge swathes of Jubaland residents. A classic example of clash of narratives is at play here! Matter of fact, the issue is more complicated and more multifaceted than these two vastly oversimplified touted accounts : Kenya, with 4,000 soldiers in the region, worries about the fate of Kismayo; and given the proximity of Kismayo to Kenyan territories including nearby tourist sites Kenya, understandably, is vying for the establishment of friendly regional administration; Kenyan politicians of Somali origin—who happen to be blood relations to the current Kismayo administration—are also part of the equation; chronic clan rivalry and contestation over meager resources are salient factors in the impasse, as well. What is more, the country is experiencing a leadership vacuum. Mahmoud’s ascension to power was earned through a parliament election delivered via a 4.5 formula, theoretically meant to fend off executive power grab of late. Nevertheless, Mahmoud has become the one man who dominates the agenda and future course of the country without any challenge. There is unease, in some circles, with his ostensible authoritarian behavior and his unquenchable desire for all governmental roles, including attending international meetings, who wins what contract, and even what talking-points can be disseminated to the press. Nothing is too big or too small to the President’s span of attention. Having surrounded himself with yes-men (most of them are men), he finds himself all-knowing and all-alone; the man is a victim to a textbook example of group-thinking. Sometimes one should marvel at his ability to manage so many varying issues, and have enough time for sleep; or maybe the cramming is the cause of his failings. The intoxication of power having gone to his head—perhaps rightly so, as he is the head of a permanent Somali Government with an international recognition —Mahmoud is running the country as his own household. Jubaland may not be the death-knell of Mahmoud’s administration, but the crisis-management skills he has displayed in this case have been appalling. Kismayo was his first assignment since he came to power. The aura of perfect stewardship associated with him is over. Some charlatans in Kismayo and Gorwe have stripped him of his noble veil. In reality, he is the victim of his own. A balanced policy that is mindful to clan sensitivities would not only have demonstrated that he is a statesman but also a magnanimous one at that. He flanked the test and the rest is history. He will be challenged more often, not only by Raskambooni entity but by many other entities. This is not a bad thing at all. But, would he be able to funnel challenges while still holding fast on the moral high ground expected of him to hold? In short, at the root of the Kismayo problem is the combination of proxy war, entrenched clan mistrust, Somali elites wrangling over meager resources, and a President who because he brooks little challenge, avoids high caliber Somalis and draws his cabinet members and advisers from a pool of individuals with a second-rate standing. For those concerned with Somalia’s wellbeing, Mahmoud’s mishandling of Kismayo state of affairs is an omen of disaster. Not all issues in the contemporary Somali civil strife revolve around tribalism. A good junk, however, do. Whether real or perceived, clan tendencies almost, shape the conceptualization and the formation of all political, social and economic worldviews of the Somali nation. Sometimes issues that start as free of clan predilections, such as a dispute over resources, may turn easily into clan charged subject and are fought over in the name of tribalism. In this light, Mahamoud cannot afford to allow Kismayo dispute to fester. He should initiate genuine reconciliation and nuanced policy plan. Otherwise, the next crisis is potential to revert the country back to “the war of all against all” era experienced by the Somali people in 1990s.
Posted on: Wed, 26 Jun 2013 20:16:37 +0000
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