Sport: Basketball (4* NBA Play of the Day) Market: Golden State Warriors @ Oklahoma City Thunder Pick: Total OVER 200 points Odds: $1.71 Agency: Bet365 Wager: 4 Units Game Time: 12:10pm AEDT Analysis: The Golden State Warriors (9-7) look to bounce back off a 99-103 loss to Dallas Mavericks. Stephen Curry had 28 points and 8 assists while David Lee and Klay Thompson each chipped in with 20 points in a losing effort. Oklahoma City Thunder (10-3) won a battle of the Titans, beating the San Antonio Spurs 94-88 on Wednesday night. Kevin Durant had 27 points and 13 rebounds while Serge Ibaka contributed 17 points and 5 blocks. Six of the last eight games between these two teams saw the higher number and we expect no less here. Five of eight games versus a team that is averaging more than 99 points per game for the Thunder and six of nine games for the Warriors in the same situation has seen the higher number cash in. OKC has won all 10 of its games at home this season and has scored big. Take a close look at the “over” in what should be fast pace game. Take the OVER 200 points here for a strong 4 units. Sport: Basketball Market: Golden State Warriors @ Oklahoma City Thunder Pick: Superline – Thunder -2 ½ points & total OVER 196 ½ points Odds: $1.91 Agency: Centrebet Wager: 3 Units Game Time: 12:10pm AEDT Analysis: The Golden State Warriors will be without Andre Iguodala in this contest. Iguodala is one of the most versatile players in the league, and without him the Warriors dont have anyone who can guard Kevin Durant. Now that Russell Westbrook is healthy and back in the lineup, the Thunder have been playing exceptional basketball. Oklahoma City has a terrific home court advantage, and the Warriors arent a very good road team. Golden State beat Oklahoma City by a single point in their first meeting this year. Look for the Thunder to get revenge and win comfortably here. Rather than giving up the 7-8 point start with the Thunder, we’re taking the Superline for 3 units which only needs us to give up -2 ½ points and also the lower total of OVER 196 ½ points. Sport: Basketball Market: Dallas Mavericks @ Atlanta Hawks Pick: Total OVER 201 points Odds: $1.88 Agency: Betfair Wager: 3 Units Game Time: 11:40am AEDT Analysis: The books have set the bar too low in this contest between the Dallas Mavericks and Atlanta Hawks tonight. Well take advantage by backing the OVER in what we believe will be an absolute shootout with each team topping the 100-point mark. The reason this total has been set so low is because both Dallas and Atlanta have been going UNDER the total a lot recently. In fact, The UNDER is 4-0 in Mavs last four games overall, while the UNDER is 6-1 in the Hawks last seven. However, these recent trends have provided us with a ton of value to back the OVER. Dallas beat Atlanta by a final of 118-109 in the season opener for 227 combined points. We expect a similar result tonight. The OVER is now 5-0 in the last five meetings in this series. In the last three meetings, they have combined for 227, 240 and 206 points, respectively. Both teams like to push the tempo, which will create the perfect storm for a high-scoring affair tonight. Dallas ranks 7th in the league in pace at 99.4 possessions per game, while Atlanta ranks 11th in pace at 98.2 possessions per contest. The Mavericks are also 5th in the league in offensive efficiency at 106.2 points per 100 possessions, while Atlanta is 15th at 101.0 points per 100 possessions. Dallas is 27-10 to the OVER in road games after four or more consecutive unders since 1996. The OVER is 20-5-1 in Mavericks last 26 games vs. NBA Southeast Division opponents. The OVER is 21-9 in Hawks last 30 Friday games. Take the OVER 201 points here for 3 units. Sport: Basketball Market: Cleveland Cavaliers @ Boston Celtics Pick: Total UNDER 192 ½ points Odds: $1.71 Agency: Bet365 Wager: 3 Units Game Time: 11:40am AEDT Analysis: The books have set the number way too high in this contest between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Boston Celtics. Ill take advantage by backing the UNDER as do not expect either team to reach 95 points in this one, which is what it would take to go over the total. These are two of the worst offensive teams in the league as the Cavs are scoring 92.6 points per game on 41.8% shooting, while the Celtics are scoring 92.9 points per game on 44.3% shooting. Neither team really like to push the tempo, either. Both ranks in the middle of the pack in pace as Cleveland is 15th at 97.0 possessions per game, while Boston is 18th at 96.6 possessions per game. The key here is that neither team has been able to do much with those possessions. Cleveland ranks 27th in offensive efficiency at 93.4 points per 100 possessions, while Boston is 26th at 95.6 points per 100 possessions. The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings in this series with combined scores of 188, 185 and 185 points. In fact, the Celtics and Cavaliers have combined for 188 or less points in six of their last seven meetings overall. Boston is 19-6 to the UNDER vs. poor passing teams who average 20 or less assists per game over the past two seasons. The UNDER is 8-1 in Cavaliers last nine Friday games. The UNDER is 12-2 in Cavaliers last 12 vs. NBA Atlantic Division foes. The UNDER is 21-8 in Cavs last 29 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. The UNDER is 8-1 in Celtics last nine vs. NBA Central Division foes. Take the UNDER 192 ½ points here for 3 units. Sport: Basketball Market: Washington Wizards @ Indiana Pacers Pick: Wizards +13 points Odds: $1.61 Agency: Bet365 Wager: 4 Units Game Time: 12:10pm AEDT Analysis: The Indiana Pacers are way overvalued right now due to their 14-1 start. Theres no question this is one of the best teams in the league, but they have taken advantage of a very easy schedule thus far, and should not be laying double-digits to Washington tonight. Indiana has only faced one team this season that currently has a winning record, and that was Memphis (8-7). With their biggest game of the season against the Los Angeles Clippers on deck, this could certainly be a lookahead spot for the Pacers. Quietly, the Washington Wizards have won three straight and five of their last six games overall heading into this one. They are undervalued right now due to a poor start to the season, with road losses to the likes of the Heat, Thunder, Mavericks and Spurs, who are four of the best teams in the NBA. Theres no question that Washington is better than its 7-8 record would indicate, while Indiana is nowhere near as good as its 14-1 mark. These teams met four times last season with Indiana winning three of them by 4, 7 and 8 points. Washington won the other by a final of 104-85 at home as a 4-point dog in their final meeting of the season, which is when John Wall was actually healthy, and he led the way with 37 points. Wall miss the other three meetings, and the Wizards still hung tough and lost all three by 8 points or fewer. Plays against home favourites of 10 or more points (INDIANA) - after 3 or more consecutive wins, on Friday nights are 32-7 (82.1%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Wizards are 27-13-1 ATS in their last 41 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings in this series. Take the Wizards +13 points for a strong 4 units here. Sport: Basketball Market: Milwaukee Bucks @ Charlotte Bobcats Pick: Total UNDER 188 ½ points Odds: $1.71 Agency: Bet365 Wager: 3 Units Game Time: 11:10am AEDT Analysis: The Milwaukee Bucks and the Charlotte Bobcats are very similar teams. Neither of them has very much fire power on offense. Both of them love to slow the game down and play in the half court. While the Bobcats certainly arent a good team, it should be noted that they rank in the top ten in the NBA in field goal percentage defense. The under is 6-0-1 in the Bobcats last 7 games playing on 1 day of rest. The under is 8-0-1 in their last 9 games overall. The under is 3-0-1 in the Bobcats last 4 games versus a team with a losing road record. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 home games. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss. The under is 7-0-1 in their last 8 versus the Eastern Conference. The under is 5-0 in the Bobcats last 5 versus the NBA Central division. In all a 44-0 angle. Take the UNDER 188 ½ points here for 3 units in this one. Sport: Basketball Market: New Orleans Pelicans @ Philadelphia 76ers Pick: Pelicans -3 ½ points Odds: $1.76 Agency: Centrebet Wager: 3 Units Game Time: 12:10pm AEDT Analysis: The New Orleans Pelicans (6-8) look to bounce back from a narrow 100-101 loss at home the Golden State Warriors. Ryan Anderson scored 21 points off the bench while Jrue Holiday added 17 points and 7 assists in the loss. The Pelicans shot 47 percent from the floor and still lost. The Philadelphia 76ers (6-10) come off a 94-105 loss at home to the Orlando Magic. Michael Carter-Williams had 23 points while Evan Turner added 17 points and 11 rebounds in the loss. The Pelicans have lost two in a row to two of the best teams in the west and will be looking to bounce back here against one of the east’s “weaker sisters” in the 76ers and we fully expect it to happen. Philadelphia has lost six of seven with the lone win coming over lowly Bucks. New Orleans has won the last two meetings between these two teams by double digits and should have plenty of confidence going into the city of brotherly love. With Jrue Holliday returning to play his former team look for his teammates to play extra hard for him to get this win. Take the Pelicans -3 ½ points here for 3 units. Sport: Basketball Market: Los Angeles Clippers @ Sacramento Kings Pick: Total OVER 204 ½ points Odds: $1.88 Agency: Betfair Wager: 4 Units Game Time: 2:10pm AEDT Analysis: The LA Clippers (11-5) look to build on a 93-80 win at home over the New York Knicks. Blake Griffin had 15 points and 13 rebounds, and Chris Paul had 15 points and seven assists against New York before leaving with a strained right hamstring. The Sacramento Kings (4-9) look to bounce back from a 86-100 loss in LA to the Lakers. Greivis Vasquez led Sacramento with 20 points and DeMarcus Cousins added 17 points, eight rebounds and seven assists. The Clippers have primarily relied on an offense that is second in the NBA with 107.0 points per game, and that was certainly the case in two wins over the Kings this month. Los Angeles won 110-101 in Sacramento on Nov. 1 and narrowly beat the Kings 103-102 at home Saturday. We expect the offense to flow again when these two teams meet. The higher number has hit in five of eight meetings between these teams. Take the OVER 204 ½ points here for a strong 4 units. #EasyMoney
Posted on: Fri, 29 Nov 2013 23:14:39 +0000
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