Sport: NFL (5* NFL Play of the Day) Market: Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints Pick: Saints -2 ½ points Odds: $1.78 Agency: Betfair Wager: 5 units Game Time: 12:30pm AEDT Analysis: The Carolina Panthers stayed the hottest team in the NFL after a 27-6 win at home to move to 9-3 SU and 8-4 ATS. Cam Newton for 263 yards and two touchdowns and leaped over the pile for another score. Greg Olsen had 85 yards receiving as the defense did the rest in this game. The New Orleans Saints got embarrassed on Monday night fall, losing to the Seattle Seahawks on the road 7-34 to move to 9-3 SU and 6-6 ATS. New Orleans didnt crack 100 yards of total offense until midway through the third quarter. Jimmy Graham was nearly invisible outside of his franchise-record 12th TD catch of the season in the second quarter. While the Saints are certainly a different team on the road we expect them to come back with a major bounce back at home where the team has been literally unbeatable this season. New Orleans is 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in the Big Easy this season. The Saints havent lost consecutive games in a single regular season under coach Sean Payton since 2009. As good as the Panthers defense has been lately, they are in for the biggest challenge here with a pissed of Drew Brees and Sean Peyton. Brees has cracked 300 yards in each of the six home games this season, with 19 touchdowns and three interceptions. His 122.2 home passer rating is second in the league to that of Aaron Rodgers. New Orleans is averaging 33.2 points at home, trailing only Denver and Dallas. Consider laying the points here as the Saints are going win, and cover the spread in the process. Take the Saints -2 ½ points in this one for a HUGE 5 units. Sport: NFL (5* NFL Total of the Day) Market: Oakland Raiders @ New York Jets Pick: Total UNDER 40 ½ points Odds: $1.97 Agency: Betfair Wager: 5 units Game Time: 5:00am AEDT Analysis: The Oakland Raiders and New York Jets meet in what should be a really ugly game on Sunday afternoon. The Jets have scored 3 points in each of their last two games. They have scored 14 points or less in four of their last five games. Geno Smith is a complete disaster right now. He has thrown 8 INTs since his last touchdown pass. The Raiders defense isnt elite, but they are decent, which should be plenty. The Raiders cant throw it, but they are a good running team. New Yorks defense is number one in the NFL at stopping the run. This has all the makings of a game where both offenses struggle to get going. The under is 8-0 in the Raiders last 8 away games following four consecutive overs. The under is 6-1 in the Jets last 7 December games. A 14-1 angle. We don’t normally like taking the UNDERs on such a low total, but we just don’t see how either of these teams can really trouble the scorers much. Take the UNDER 40 ½ points in this one for a BIG 5 units. Sport: NFL Market: Cleveland Browns @ New England Patriots Pick: Patriots -9 ½ points Odds: $1.83 Agency: Bet365 Wager: 4 units Game Time: 5:00am AEDT Analysis: The Cleveland Browns sit at 4-8 SU and 5-7 ATS after a 28-32 loss at home to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Josh Gordon was all-world for a second straight game, catching 10 passes for 261 yards and two TDs. Brandon Wheedon threw for 370 yards in the loss. The New England Patriots sit at 9-3 SU and 6-6 ATS after a narrow 34-31 win over the Houston Texans. Tom Brady threw for 371 yards and two scores, and Stephen Gostkowski made two long field goals in the fourth quarter last Sunday. Rob Gronkowski had six receptions for 127 yards and Julian Edelman added 101 yards receiving on nine catches. For the second straight game the Patriots were down by at least two scores at the half of a game. We expect we see the complete performance here as the Patriots return to Foxboro. Note that the Patriots are an excellent 5-1 ATS at home this year. The Browns meanwhile have lost three in a row and failed to cover the spread in any of those games. Take the Pats -9 ½ points here for a strong 4 units. Sport: NFL Market: St Louis Rams @ Arizona Cardinals Pick: Cardinals -5 ½ points Odds: $1.87 Agency: Centrebet Wager: 3 units Game Time: 8:25am AEDT Analysis: The St. Louis Rams were manhandled by the San Francisco 49ers 23-13 to fall to 5-7 both SU and ATS last Sunday. Kellen Clemens went 19 of 37 for 218 yards with a late TD pass on the afternoon. The Rams managed 11 total yards in the first quarter and 73 in the first half. The 49ers held the Rams in check before the second-team defense surrendered the late TD. The Arizona Cardinals look to bounce back off a 21-24 loss at the Philadelphia Eagles that moved them to 7-5 SU and 8-4 ATS. Carson Palmer threw for 302 yards and three TD passes, but also had two interceptions and lost a fumble as the Cardinals had their four-game winning streak snapped. The Cardinals are 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in home games this season while the Rams are an ugly 2-3 ATS on the road. Arizona comes looking to get its monkey off the back after falling to the Rams for a third straight time. Arizona is 4-1 ATS versus teams with a losing record and 3-1 ATS as the favorite. The Rams are an ugly 3-6 ATS. The Rams offense led by Kellen Clemens just does not have the guns score enough points here versus a Cardinals defense at home that is very good and improving. Take the Cards -5 ½ points here for 3 units. Sport: NFL Market: New York Giants @ San Diego Chargers Pick: Chargers -2 ½ points Odds: $1.77 Agency: Betfair Wager: 3 units Game Time: 8:25am AEDT Analysis: The New York Giants sit at 5-7 SU and ATS after a 24-17 win at Washington on prime time. Eli Manning threw for 235 yards, one TD and one INT while Victor Cruz had 80 yards receiving and Andre Brown had two rushing TDs. The San Diego was unable to back up an upset win at Kansas City, losing at home 10-17 to the Cincinnati Bengals to move to 5-7 SU and 6-5 ATS. Philip Rivers Rivers completed 23 of 37 passes for 252 yards, one TD and one INT while Keenan Allen had 106 yards receiving in the loss. While the Chargers suffered a bit a of letdown after a big win on the road we expect the same will happen here the Giants after a prime time win. The Chargers will be looking to get back on track with a second straight home game. The Chargers are 3-2 ATS at home this season while the Giants are just 2-4 SU on the road. Take the Chargers -2 ½ points for 3 units here. Sport: NFL Market: Minnesota Vikings @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: Ravens -5 ½ points Odds: $1.83 Agency: Bet365 Wager: 4 units Game Time: 5:00am AEDT Analysis: The Baltimore Ravens have life in the AFC playoff picture. They enter this one at 6-6 on the season. This is probably their easiest game on the rest of the schedule, so they absolutely need to take care of business here. While Baltimore hasnt looked good on the road, the Ravens are still a very good team at home. Christian Ponder had been playing decent, but hell miss this game so it will be Matt Cassel starting for Minnesota. The weather is expected to be nasty here with freezing rain and snow in the forecast. We think that helps the team with the better defense, and thats clearly the Ravens. The Vikings are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 following a win. They are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 at Baltimore. Baltimore is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games against NFC North opponents. A 14-0 angle here. Take the Ravens -5 ½ points in this one for a strong 4 units. Sport: NFL Market: Kansas City Chiefs @ Washington Redskins Pick: Chiefs -2 ½ points Odds: $1.81 Agency: Betfair Wager: 3 units Game Time: 5:00am AEDT Analysis: The Kansas City Chiefs werent as good as they looked in the first nine weeks. They also arent as bad as most people think they are now that they have lost three straight games. Two of those games were against Denver, who is one of the top two or three teams in the NFL. The Chiefs defense is still without Justin Houston, but they are healthier this week than they have been the last couple weeks. Washingtons offense has been horrendous for the last three games. The Redskins defense is one of the worst in the NFL. Washington has seemingly packed it in for the year. A nice value on the much better team. Take the Chiefs -2 ½ points here for 3 units. Sport: NFL Market: Kansas City Chiefs @ Washington Redskins Pick: Total OVER 44 points Odds: $1.92 Agency: Sportsbet Wager: 3 units Game Time: 5:00am AEDT Analysis: The Washington Redskins host the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday in Week 14 of the NFL season. Washington is coming off a 24-17 loss to the Giants, while Kansas City fell to Denver their last time out, 35-28. The Kansas City defense has crashed back down to Earth in recent weeks, with injuries to the team’s top two pass-rushers really exposing the team’s secondary. As such, the Chiefs have given up 34.3 points per game over their last three contests. While the Chiefs struggle, the betting public has been slow to react, letting us get in at a very reasonable total. On the other side, Washington’s defense has stunk all season, and for all the criticism that’s been thrown at Kansas City for a lack of diversity on offense, they’ve still pit up 20 or more points in eight of their last games, and whether all of those points come from Jamaal Charles or not is little matter to us. As for the Washington offense, they’ve faced some good defense the past couple of weeks which has suppressed their offensive production, but the team can run and throw the ball well, so they can be relied on for points. Take the OVER 44 points here for 3 units. Sport: NFL Market: Buffalo Bills @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: Total OVER 41 ½ points Odds: $1.92 Agency: Sportsbet Wager: 3 units Game Time: 5:00am AEDT Analysis: The Tampa Bay Bucs were really having trouble scoring points earlier this year. While their offense isnt great now, they are far better than they were earlier this season. Mike Glennon has settled into the role over the last few weeks, and he goes against a poor Bills defense in this one. Buffalo can run the football well, and Tampa Bays rush defense has been very shaky of late. A total set this low is usually reserved for games between two top-notch defenses, but neither of these defenses are very good. The over is 4-0 in Tampa Bays last 4 home games. The over is 5-0 in the Bucs last 5 following a loss. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 following an ATS loss. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 350 yards or more last game. The over is 6-1 in the Bills last 7 games after allowing 350 yards or more in their last game. A 23-1 angle. Take the OVER 41 ½ points here for 3 units. Sport: NFL Market: Tennessee Titans @ Denver Broncos Pick: Total OVER 48 ½ points Odds: $1.97 Agency: Betfair Wager: 4 units Game Time: 8:00am AEDT Analysis: The Tennessee Titans have a pretty good defense, but theyll be up against the best offense in the NFL this weekend in Denver. A lot has been made about the fact that it will be extremely cold in this one, but we’re not convinced the cold will really change the way this game is played. There isnt any wind expected during the game, and wind is a quarterbacks worst enemy. The Titans offense has put up at least 23 points in four of their last five games. If they put up 23 points here, this one should sail over the total. Denver is averaging 38.7 points per game this season. The over is 5-0-1 in the Titans last 6 on grass. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 following a loss. It is 6-0 in their last 6 after scoring 15 points or less in their last game. The over is 5-0-1 in Denvers last 6 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 5-0-1 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a losing record. A 24-0 angle here. Take the OVER 48 ½ points here for a strong 4 units. Sport: NFL Market: Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: 49ers -1 ½ points Odds: $1.92 Agency: Betfair Wager: 4 units Game Time: 8:25am AEDT Analysis: The Seattle Seahawks have the best record in the NFL. We respect Seattle a bunch, and we have backed them successfully multiple times during the season. This time we’re going to go against the Seahawks. Seattle isnt even close to the same team on the road. They should have lost on the road to St. Louis and Houston earlier this year. The Seahawks defense is really banged up right now, and we think that allows the 49ers receivers to find open spots in the defense. Jim Harbaughs team will be extremely motivated after getting blown out in Seattle earlier this year. Great spot for the 49ers here and a very short price to pay to back them. The 49ers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. They are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a win. They are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games against a team with a winning percentage of at least 75%. A 22-2 angle. Take the 49ers -2 points for a strong 4 units. Sport: NFL Market: Indianapolis Colts @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: Bengals -5 ½ points Odds: $1.83 Agency: Bet365 Wager: 3 units Game Time: 5:00am AEDT Analysis: The Cincinnati Bengals host the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday in Week 14 of the NFL season. Cincinnati is coming off a 17-10 win over San Diego, while Indianapolis beat Tennessee in Week 13, 22-14. Indianapolis has been a hot mess since coming out of their bye. The team remains at 8-4 on the season, so there haven’t been many jumping off their bandwagon, but the reality is that the team has had one of the easiest schedules in football and have had a very tough time with it. The team has put up a couple of duds against the Rams and Cardinals, and two of their three wins since the break have been by just a field goal, while even the third win came on a fourth quarter comeback. Now they have to go to Cincinnati where the Bengals have one of the best home field advantages in football, and take on a Bengals team that has done just about everything well this season, playing strong defense, running the ball with a two-headed backfield, and throwing the ball well with Andy Dalton and A.J. Green. The Bengals are 6-0 ATS in their last six home games. Take the Bengals -5 ½ points here for 3 units. Sport: NFL Market: Indianapolis Colts @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: Total UNDER 46 points Odds: $1.66 Agency: Bet365 Wager: 3 units Game Time: 5:00am AEDT Analysis: The Indianapolis Colts and Cincinnati Bengals are all set to play in what should be some ugly weather conditions on Sunday afternoon. The weather forecasts calls for freezing rain, sleet, snow, and plain rain all mixing throughout this contest. What will the weather conditions do to these teams? It will likely make them a lot more conservative in their play calling. That likely helps the Bengals, since they have the better defense. It also helps the under since both teams will be running the game a lot more often and the clock won’t be stopping. The Bengals running game has been improving over the last few weeks, but they aren’t the type of team that can pile up the points when the defense knows the run is coming. At the same time, the Bengals defense is fully capable of shutting down this Colts offense. Indianapolis’ offense has looked very shaky of late. We leaned toward the under in this one before we saw the weather reports here, and the weather makes us feel much more strongly about this play. Don’t expect very many big plays in this game. A Cincinnati win and a low scoring game seems very likely. Take the UNDER 46 points here for 3 units. Sport: NFL Market: Miami Dolphins @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: Steelers -2 ½ points Odds: $1.78 Agency: Betfair Wager: 3 units Game Time: 5:00am AEDT Analysis: The Pittsburgh Steelers have been in the news for Mike Tomlin’s sideline problems last week. No doubt the team wants to get a win this week to stay in the playoff chase (barely) and get the news story changed to something other than that play in Baltimore. Miami is 6-6 on the year, but we’re still not convinced this Dolphins team is a real contender. An offensive line as bad as this one is generally ends up keeping a team from winning key games. The Dolphins haven’t proven capable of beating really good teams on the road this year. Pittsburgh’s defense had some problems earlier this year, but this is still a top ten unit. They have a safety who is a ball hawk and guys in the front seven who can really get after the opposing quarterback. Ryan Tannehill is in for a very long game this Sunday. The weather conditions look shaky for this game as well, and we think that helps the team with the better defense (Steelers). Miami has held things together pretty well despite their turmoil this season, but the Dolphins are not a playoff caliber team. Pittsburgh wins here and stays in the playoff conversation at least. Take the Steelers -2 ½ points for 3 units here. #EasyMoney
Posted on: Sun, 08 Dec 2013 03:26:19 +0000
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