Sport: NRL Market: Brisbane Broncos @ Newcastle Knights Pick: Knights win Odds: $1.60 Agency: Betfair Wager: 4 Units Analysis: The Knights have a great chance to finish on the required 28 points and they have the best points F&A than the other teams in contention for positions 5 to 8. They are a vastly inferior team when playing away from Newcastle and if they can get to 28 points they will finish either 5th or 6th and earn a vital home ground Finals match and maybe even have Gidley available. We don’t believe they would survive beyond week 1 if they have to play an away game. The scenario is different for the Broncos who have a poor H&A point’s diff. and simply must win this game just to stay in the hunt mathematically. It is an intriguing match and we are expecting some more deck chair movements with unnamed players turning up. The Broncos have already rushed back Reed and Hannant is also expected to play which has caused them to firm up now to 2.6, maybe a slight over re-action. This is the second week in a row for the Broncos to be on the road after travelling to Nth Q’land last week. but they seem to love the Hunter and are clearly the Knights bogey side having won their last 4 straight. In fact the Knights have won just 3 of their past 12 games against the Broncos who also have 6 wins from their past 9 games at Hunter. While that is an impressive away record, the most important fact in my view is that the Knights play so much better at home and we feel they are going better than the Broncos at the moment. They are also coached by Wayne Bennett who is a genius and getting his team up when it is a “must win” situation. Remember his Grand Final record is 6 games for 6 wins so he knows how to win the big games. The Broncos cost us last weekend with a late Hodges try but we think the Knights will get the job done here. Take the Knights to win this one. Sport: NRL Market: Sydney Roosters @ Penrith Panthers Pick: Roosters -10 ½ points Odds: $1.64 Agency: Sportsbet Wager: 3 Units Analysis: The Roosters only completed 68% of their sets when they last played the Panthers in Round 8 and still put 5 tries to 1 on them winning 30-6. Michael Jennings got 2 tries that day and this is his first game back on his old home ground after leaving the Panthers. SBW also carved the Panthers up and he will be missing this time but the Panthers will also not have Plum and Robinson. The Roosters have proven to be excellent under bombs and that is the Panthers best hope here as Walsh is a master with tactical kicking which appears to be their only edge over the very complete and professional Roosters. For the Panthers to cause an upset Walsh would need some luck with his bombs and grubbers and Segeyaro would need to cause problems with his brilliant runs from dummy half. All very possible, but unlikely against a Roosters outfit that is doing it at both ends. The Roosters must win if they hope to be the MPs, and the Panthers must win if they hope to play in the Finals. The Roosters have been putting away the lower teams by big margins with their stifling defence which sets up their attacks. The difference in class is obvious here, even without SBW and we think the Roosters should win this one comfortably. Take the Roosters -10 ½ points in this one. #EasyMoney
Posted on: Fri, 02 Aug 2013 09:01:15 +0000
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