Stanislaw Zakroczymski: Popowski - Russia in a blind alley. Russia challenged the international order of the last twenty five years. This raises a whole new political arrangement, the shape of which is not yet decided. It is possible that a new Berlin Wall standing on the Bug River. Slawomir Popowskim, many years a correspondent of the Polish press in Moscow an interview by Stanislaw Zakroczymski. What did you feel while listening to the message of President Putin last Tuesday? Like Russia, so first of all I felt bad for her. Why? Because once again loses its historical chance. For hundreds of years the Russians bitterly speak about their country we daganiayushchaya strana, ie country overdue, remaining behind, who must chase a runaway world. Again, emphasis on military power and empire, and not on internal modernization. This means that Russia is once again packed in a civilization blind alley. The same causes will lead to the same consequences. The Russian pendulum again swings to the side of the empire and return to the starting point. As for the construction of Soviet-bis? This project looks a little different. Putin is not about a simple restoration of the structures of the USSR, but to build around the Kremlin a center of independent political force, an alternative to the whole of the Western world, which Putin considers as its main enemy. This matrix development that can be applied to any period of history of Russia from at least three hundred years. Is the empire building and modernization of the country completely exclusive? Yes. Expansion and internal reforms can not at this time accept. Because modernization would require liberalization, democratization, the stronger the power of local governments, a strong civil society, which is a new model of authority, which in this Putin model has nothing to do. Even Alexander II, the largest car-reformer who appropriated peasants, eased censorship and changed the judicial system when he was offered the introduction of a constitutional monarchy with the place have knocked project. Is it because he was afraid of losing autocratic power? No, because, as he put it it would be the end of the empire. And I think that Putin also, when you fall asleep in the evening at the Kremlin asks the question: what if the empire fall apart? And this is the main motivating factor in his politics. Is the Russian reluctance to upgrade is not due to the defeat of attempts liberal reforms of the nineties? Certainly, but you have to first tell you why this disaster took place ... Are not due to a hard, neoliberal policies of the West, which does not allow for the implementation of the social-democratic plans Gorbachev? Maybe there is a bit wrong, but the reasons must be sought primarily on the Russian side, because some of the countries of the former Eastern bloc somehow managed to survive the hardships of the beginnings of the free market and are now in a completely different place. So who to blame? I think that first of all the weakness of elite liberal-democratic. During the great Moscow demonstration in a few days after the coup August 1991 I stood at the White House, as it was called then-headquarters of the Russian parliament, on the balcony, from which he spoke Yeltsin. I spoke with Oleg Rumiancov, one of the authors of the first Russian constitution. He walked over to him, Ruslan Chasbulatov, then chairman of the Supreme Council of Russia, and later opponent of Yeltsin. I remember very well how the question Rumyantsev, we won, what do we do now? Chasbulatov gave the shortest answer - immediately take over all state institutions, trade union. Facade has changed, and the structures of power are the same? Almost, because the real power passed from the Combined central to the nomenclature of the region, a similar, but even more parochial political culture. And even if the representatives of the liberal intelligentsia came for a moment to power, it just to enjoy the official dacha and a car. The result is what Russian called nedogasudarstvo. Its hard to translate it into Polish. It would probably not-to-end-state. The body, which theoretically has all the structures, but they do not correspond to reality, does not meet the relevant functions. It parliament, but controlled by - he says Lilia Shevtsova - personalized power Kremlin, are parties, but the Kremlin can set up any new before the next campaign parliament just to break down the opposition. Court is not a court, because it is corrupt. Many analysts who describe this reality usually gives the same error: trying to use to describe the reality of the Russian (and previously Soviet) of the same categories that are used in the description of the political reality of the West. And it has nothing to reality. Such a ratio was not and is not. This impotence countries combined also with a great dissection of the social ... Course. They grew very rich small layer of oligarchs derived from the former nomenclature, or with an old Komsomol. The best example is Khodorkovsky, currently a great defender of human rights, which in the late 80th started out as a youth activist and - apparently - did career financial, starting with the import of computers Atari and later foodstuffs. Also from Polish. Well - paying huge bribes appropriate state authorities, calculated at fixed rates, as a percentage of the value of contracts. On the basis of such fortunes grew commercial banks, which during the presidential election in 1996 formed the so-called siemibankirshchyna, a group of seven banks, which at the price of enormous concessions from the state rescued budget and financed the campaign Yeltsin, which he won, although initially the polls gave him barely 4% of the vote. Then Vladimir Potanin, head of Onexin Bank, was to protect the interests of the Deputy Prime Minister. That was the birth of Russian capitalism. Those who have tried to work on the bottom, they had no chance. There were no careers from Cot to riches that occurred for example in Poland. On the other hand, new areas of poverty. The whole social groups degrade! I remember Mrs. Ludmila, who was previously married to a very influential person, committee member district party and in the nineties, went to the homes of foreigners on Kutuzowski Prospectus and selling them fresh eggs. Many people with degrees stood in the mud on Talkuche and traded bacon distributed on dirty paper ... surely this nation conquerors of the universe, who stand proudly in defiance of the whole world, shaped with a sense of pride and volume experienced unprecedented misery and humiliation ... At this humiliation game now Putin? Worse. His policy is very similar to the period of the black reaction from the period of Nicholas I. He refers to the darkest corners of the Russian soul, to the classic triad: autocracy, which is one ruler who decides everything, samobytnost, or the belief that we are separate, better civilization, whose purpose is the salvation of the world and Orthodoxy, which is currently at its main mission considers defense the most conservative values against the rotten European civilization. In December 2012 took place in Moscow powerful demonstrations. The world press prophesied that we are witnessing the birth of the Russian middle class, which begins demand about personal freedom and political. What happened to her? First of all, do not exaggerate with the conviction of the power of this movement. These demonstrations have accumulated about 100 thousand. people, while the time of perestroika remember this, which came four or five times more. But even if we assume that this group comprises one-fifth of Russian society, it is very poor quality. Not only because of internal divisions, but mainly because there is no idea on what Russia would want. He knows that the power you need to change, but it does wonders already over what would occur in return, what reforms the economic, social, legal, should be carried out. Still, however, the middle class is the hope of Russia. Except that the process of political maturation may take a long time. In addition, she also is contaminated imperial complex. Please note that for some liberal dissidents from the communist era collapse of the USSR was also a tragedy, despite their democratic sympathies. For them, these values can not be excluded. Hence the huge support for Putins policies of aggression? Colouring imperial-chauvinistic is one of the factors that make up this support. The second is certainly the power of the Kremlin propaganda. You have to remember that 80% of the Russian population derives information about the world only from TV. This is the reason why the Kremlin, but allows the operation of a niche, often fantastic opposition newspapers and radio stations operating in Moscow, maintains a complete monopoly on television broadcasting. Therefore, thinking of most Russians, especially those living in the provinces, based on Putin passwords. And these are mostly extreme nationalistic. A lot of talk lately about issues of European energy independence. I wonder how it looks from the other side. Is the imperialist policy of Putin is back in the Russian economy? The Russian economy is extremely single-track. About 60% of Russias national income comes from the production and sale of oil and gas. Russian budget for 2014 was calculated at a price of 101-103 dollars per barrel. It is known that even while maintaining such a high price economy will continue to develop, and even threatens to stagnate. So you can only imagine what would have happened if this price seriously declined. The Russians do not do anything to modernize its economy? A lot of talking about it and probably acts among them understand that it is necessary. Even Vladimir Putin recently stated that the capacity of the economy based on the model of the raw materials have run out. The modernization of the said lot for the presidency of Dmitry Medvedev. The problem is that almost nothing in this direction was done. I do not mean as much as the fact that Gazprom more it seems to build strategic political pipeline, than to search for and development of new gas fields, or buying new technology. The problems are more basic. For example? Even the fact that from Moscow to Vladivostok can not be reached by car. And I do not mean the modern highway. At considerable distances do not even have asphalt roads! In the eighties, said of the Soviet Union, that is the Upper Volta with rockets. Recently, when the Kiev revolution, Putin tried to buy the Ukrainians a dozen billion dollar loan, Vitaly Portnikov, Ukrainian journalist, aptly called Russia Upper Volta with loans. Only that it is the policy over the state, which can be very bad end. The danger of economic collapse hanging over Russia. How would you prevent it? In 2009, a prominent analyst Dmitry Trenin presented Putin note containing the password either modernization or marginalization. He proved that if Russia wants to change, it must be open to Europe. From this result also consequences for the Polish because Trenin argued that it is impossible to work more closely with Europe over our heads. Thats why Putin decided then such a gesture as to arrive at Westerplatte. Unfortunately, this idea has been long shelved, and the last action of Putin finally it shattered. Exacerbations of Russian course used recently as an argument for the fact that Lech Kaczynski, who uses tough policy towards Russia was right and conciliatory policy of Donald Tusk turned out to be naive. Rightly? This implies first of all that was right Julius Mieroszewski, who claimed against the Russians rely on two syndromes. On the one hand syndrome insurrection, which states that the worse for Russia, the better for us. On the other hand we have syndrome Trade Center, which assumes that gain the most, if we are obedient, docile and polite. Mieroszewski argued that both these attitudes are overtones neurotic. And on neurosis never build a meaningful policy. Totally agree with that. Kaczynski politics wore signs syndrome insurrection? She was even intellectually interesting, but unfortunately unrealistic and too pompous. So you have seen the concepts of anti-Russian alliances with Latvia, Lithuania and Georgia, or alternative energy policy of Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan. It can not be considered optional dialogue with Russia. This is a necessary element of a sound policy of each neighbor, such as he is. It can not be put in the position of anyones foot, but dressing up with a ponytail in Moscow is also not reasonable. So how Poland should behave in the face of the ongoing expansion of our neighbor? Surely what is happening now in the east is a huge threat. I think that the conflict Ukrainian is today a secondary character. The main problem is the fact that Russia has attempted to formulate a new geopolitics, the new balance of power in Europe. The challenge for the West is so the answer to the question whether it can be a phenomenon accept. Fortunately, recent decisions by President Obama, in a weaker extent the European Union, would demonstrate that such a thing is not. I think that making the conflict over Ukraines affairs International is a great success of our country. I am sure that the activity of our politicians is one of the main reasons why the West has reacted in a much more decisive than the war in Georgia six years ago. The reaction was so correct. And how our government should pursue policies in the long term? I just belong to the group of Euro-enthusiasts, and I think that Polish foreign policy should continue entering its actions in the interests of the European Union. I fight for it to have an impact on the definition of those interests. It is a paradox, but I believe that due to the conflict in Ukraine establishing a common line can come to the EU more easily than ever before. Why? Because there has been a challenge international order last twenty-five years. Its the end of the end of history within the meaning of the opinion that the Soviet Union fell apart, the resulting sovereign states, there are different problems, but generally it all going in the same direction of liberal democracy. Today we face the prospect of the birth of an entirely new political system, the shape of which is not yet decided. Rejecting the extreme scenario of World War III, I can imagine a situation that a new Berlin Wall standing on the Bug River. It would not be advantageous, but it is possible ... If the Berlin Wall can stand on the Bug, why not on the Oder? Its twenty-five years of our integration with the West seems to be lucky impossible. And this is probably the biggest success this quarter. Interview by Stanislaw Zakroczymski
Posted on: Wed, 02 Apr 2014 10:58:26 +0000
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