Strong Retail Sales Predicted for Second Half of 2014 The National Retail Federation forecast includes analysis of consumers’ spending outlook and other economic factors. Despite slow growth in retail sales during the first half of 2014, the National Retail Federation expects sales to grow significantly faster over the next five months. In January, the NRF predicted that retail sales would grow 4.1 percent in 2014 over 2013. The year-over-year forecast is now growth of 3.6 percent. The NRF calculated that sales grew 2.9 percent during the first half of the year and are expected to grow at least 3.9 percent during the second half. The numbers include general retail sales and non-store sales, excluding automobiles, gas stations and restaurants. “No retailer was immune to the doldrums witnessed during the first quarter, and as a result, the year’s growth trajectory was impacted,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “That said, there is plenty of evidence that the second half of the year will be better for the industry as consumers begin to feel more optimistic about their spending decisions.” Economic growth in the first quarter of the year was weaker than expected in part due to poor weather, according to NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz. “The severe weather and other factors we experienced earlier this year have taken their toll on retail, but most of those problems are behind us. A second look at our forecast shifted our expectations slightly, but it’s important to note that the outlook is positive. Sales are growing and we expect them to continue at a moderate pace.” In his 2014 retail sales update, Kleinhenz said that while the use of consumer credit has grown, consumers’ drive to leverage up debt with higher-interest revolving credit cards remains minimal. “Consumers continue to be cautious, selective and price sensitive, which raises issues about how fast the economy is expected to grow,” Kleinhenz said. “Risks to the forecast remain but [they] are, in fact, balanced.”
Posted on: Tue, 29 Jul 2014 14:01:00 +0000