Sunday, 16 March 2014Login / Register Prague Daily Monitor LN: Europe must seek independence from Russian gas ČTK | 14 MARCH 2014 Prague, March 13 (CTK) - The only way for advanced European countries to avert the ghost of imperial Russia and prevent a hot conflict with it is to make Europe independent from Russian gas, which they are expected to do, Czech economist Lubos Smrcka writes in daily Lidove noviny (LN) yesterday. Russian President Vladimir Putins popularity among Russians is immense after the Sochi Olympics and the annexation of Ukraines Crimea. At the same time, however, Putin has made a big and fatal mistake, and it is only the question of time when it will backfire on him, Smrcka writes. Many comments have been made on nations, history, human rights, naval fleets and weapon types in connection with the current Crimea crisis, Smrcka says. All of this is interesting but it will not decisively determine historical developments. It can influence the days, months and even a few years to come, but it will not influence the orientation of whole countries and systems and the thinking of nations. They are affected by something else - trust or mistrust, Smrcka writes. Putin has returned Russia to the period of the Cold War and strong mistrust. It will influence Europes assessment of Russia and Putin as its trade partners, Smrcka writes. Europe strongly depends on Russian gas and largely also on Russian oil, but nothing more. Of course, Russia is a large and promising market for Europes exports, and also a promising exporter of tourists, Smrcka writes. However, Russias economic strength rests in its raw material exports only. Russia is unimportant as an exporter of anything but gas, oil, iron ore and other metals. Simply, Russia means nothing but oil and gas, Smrcka writes. If the EU resumed the prospecting of its shale gas deposits and if it did its utmost to launch shale gas mining as quickly as possible, 30 to 50 percent of the continents gas consumption might be covered from these unconventional resources in about ten years, Smrcka writes. A promising source in this respect is Poland, but also the Czech Republic, France, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria...And, noteworthily, also Ukraine, which could become entirely independent from foreign gas in a few years, Smrcka writes. If so, Europe would do without Russia to a large extent and it would become clear that Russia can hardly do without Europe, Smrcka says. In this connection, it is also important that the USA will become a significant gas exporter in 2018, he says. A major customer of Russian gas producers is China, which, however, ambitiously plans its own extensive gas extraction using British and U.S. technologies. In the next decades, China wants to cover about one third of its gas consumption from unconventional resources and to continue with this trend, Smrcka writes. Chinas shale gas deposits seem to be far higher than the American. There is the problem of badly accessible areas and poor infrastructure, but these are but technical difficulties, Smrcka writes. An important circumstance is that the construction of new pipelines for Russian gas supplies have been discussed in China for a decade but it has not started so far, he recalls. To sum it up, the extraction of gas and oil is still the question of technologies and price only, he adds. Putin had reasons for launching his Crimea adventure and he will most probably achieve most of what he plans to achieve. However, his action has shown to Europe and other partners that reliability is not a quality typical of Russia, Smrcka says. After the passions subside and Europe starts drawing conclusions from the Crimea crisis, it will realise that if it wants to have the upper hand over Russia, it must make itself independent from Russian gas. Europe will definitely do it, Smrcka writes. Without gas [exports], Russias importance would shrink to a half. Russia would turn into a tired and permanently hungry bear suffering from a bad periodontal disease, Smrcka writes. The then U.S. president Ronald Reagan exhausted the Soviet Union in an armament competition in the 1980s. Similarly, the modern advanced countries must exhaust Russia in the gas and oil production competition if they want to get rid of the ghost of imperial Russia and to prevent a hot conflict, Smrcka writes. Copyright 2014 by the Czech News Agency (ČTK). All rights reserved. Copying, dissemination or other publication of this article or parts thereof without the prior written consent of ČTK is expressly forbidden. The Prague Daily Monitor and Monitor CE are not responsible for its content.
Posted on: Sun, 16 Mar 2014 10:17:36 +0000
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