THERE ARE SEVERAL DIFFERENT WEATHER ELEMENTS AFFECTING THE FORECAST IN THE NEXT 7-8 DAYS BUT NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH AND/OR CENTRAL TEXAS. OF NOTE...ALL MENTION OF WINTER PRECIPITATION NEXT WEEK HAS BEEN REMOVED AND THE REASONING FOR THIS WILL BE DISCUSSED BELOW. THIS MORNING...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH THE BASE OF THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING BUT A COLD FRONT WAS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS KANSAS AND THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AND WILL SLOWLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S AND 60S WITH WARMER AFTERNOON HIGHS ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WHERE THE CLOUD COVER WILL THIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND COOLER AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE EAST WHERE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE HIGHEST OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES WHERE WE KEEP A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN/SHOWERS TODAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY NO MORE THAN 1/10TH OF AN INCH IS EXPECTED. THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL REMAINS WEST OF THE REGION. IT SHOULD BE ENTERING OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES JUST BEFORE OR AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN PUSHING OUT OF OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AROUND MID MORNING SATURDAY. AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED. THERE ARE CONTINUED CHANCES FOR RAIN AHEAD OF AND WITH THE FRONT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE PRIMARILY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 WHERE CHANCES INCREASE TO 40-50 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME ELEVATED CAPE MAY BE PRESENT TONIGHT SO INCLUDED A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL BUT THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. SOME OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. AS THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION SATURDAY MORNING...MOST OF THE RAIN WILL END. HOWEVER...AS THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SPREAD LIFT ACROSS THE REGION...THERE COULD BE SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN. HAVE LEFT LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF SATURDAY FOR THIS REASON. TEMPERATURES TRENDS ON SATURDAY ARE COMPLICATED AS MOST OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE NEARLY STEADY AND/OR FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE DAY...BUT OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES WILL SEE A SLIGHT WARMING IN THE AFTERNOON. AS A SURFACE HIGH SETTLES IN SATURDAY NIGHT...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHWEST TO UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY AND WHILE MOST OF THE MODELS KEEP THE AREA DRY ON SUNDAY...THE NAM DEVELOPS MORE LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW BUT CONTINUE TO MONITOR SUNDAY. ON THE HEELS OF SUNDAYS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE ANOTHER DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SECOND TROUGH ACTUALLY ORIGINATES SOUTH OF ALASKA WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED. AS IT DIVES SOUTH...IT WILL FACILITATE COLD ARCTIC AIR MOVING OUT OF CANADA AND DOWN THE PLAINS TO TEXAS. THE ARCTIC FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY WITH DRASTICALLY COLDER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PREVIOUS FORECASTS MENTIONED LOW CHANCES FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION SOMETIME DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. THIS WAS DUE TO THE INTERACTION OF THE ARCTIC AIR WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN DEVELOPING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARDS A SLOWER TIMING AND TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND THEY DO NOT BRING THE UPPER LEVEL LOW INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UNTIL FRIDAY NOW. WITH A LACK OF LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS THE REGION AND WEAK RIDGING AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AND WINTER PRECIPITATION FROM THE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE STILL DEVELOPING LIGHT QPF ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES ON TUESDAY ALONG AN ELEVATED FRONT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION...BUT A LACK OF LARGER SCALE LIFT TENDS TO RESULT IN A DRIER FORECAST. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT BY THEN THE SURFACE HIGH WILL HAVE ALREADY MOVED EAST AND SOUTH WINDS WILL ACT TO MODIFY AND WARM THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THUS...ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO FALL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND REMOVED THE MENTION OF WINTER PRECIPITATION FROM THESE DAYS AS WELL.
Posted on: Fri, 26 Dec 2014 15:18:52 +0000
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