...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER NERN WY HAS PROGRESSED STEADILY EWD AT A FAIRLY QUICK PACE...ROUGHLY 35-40KT...AND WILL SOON SPREAD EAST OF THE MO RIVER IN SD. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE EWD AND MAY ULTIMATELY MERGE WITH DOWNSTREAM ACTIVITY ORIENTED ALONG THE DISPLACED LEE TROUGH AFTER 04Z. LARGE HAIL...SOME OF IT APPROACHING 2 INCHES BASED ON LATEST WDSSII HAIL ALGORITHM...IS NOTED WITH THE STORM OVER SRN DEWEY COUNTY SD AND GOLF BALL SIZE IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH ANY STRONG CORES ACROSS THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REGION. DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE THAT IS EVOLVING ACROSS NCNTRL SD. FARTHER NORTH...ASCENT WITH EXIT REGION OF MID LEVEL JET IS OVERSPREADING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ACROSS NWRN ND THIS EVENING. SMALL CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION HAVE RECENTLY EVOLVED ACROSS THIS REGION AND SHOULD SPREAD ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE SUPPORT. WHILE HAIL MAY APPROACH/BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN AOB SEVERE LEVELS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..DARROW.. 09/19/2013
Posted on: Thu, 19 Sep 2013 00:44:18 +0000
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