TODAY 20.03.2014 goleada.bloger.index.hr Suggestions No.4 for today: Napoli - Porto over 2.5 gool (3.00) After a lucky first leg win at home, Porto will travel to Italy with more problems than everyone may expect. Tipster Kamlesh and JerryDrake had already done previews and all of the data & statistics there are important (I will use it and I hope they dont mind): - Napoli are undefeated in their last 12 home matches in all competitions (3 draws, 9 victories, 5 clean sheets). In fact, Napoli have lost only 1 home game this season from 21 home games played and they have scored at least 1 goal in 20 of them. Porto, on the other hand, have conceded at least 1 goal in their last 6 away matches in all competitions. (taken from Kamlesh preview) - Both teams have average goals/game higher than 2,5. Napoli stands at 2,90 while Porto stands at 2,68. - In the last 10 games, Porto had only not scored in 2 of them. 7 of those 10 games, ended up as Over 2,5. In Napoli end, same as Porto, only didnt scored in 2 of them, however only 3 games are Over 2,5. However I have a bit more specific info to add: Porto will have troubles in defense. There are only 2 right backs and 3 center back able to play, while one of the centers is still doubtful. - Alex Sandro is suspend, starting left back, and the squad has no natural alternative to the position, so Mangala will probably play as left back as he played before. - Maicon is doubtful until match time. He trained all week conditioned and the only alternative is Reyes. However, the mexican only played 2/3 games in the season if I remember correctly and those matchs were in the national cup where Porto played minor teams (mostly amateur or semi-pro). International competion debut for him. - Helton, starting GK & team captain is injured for rest of the year. Fabiano will replace him, his quality cant be denied, however he can go from the best to beast in literally 10 seconds as he already showed. Also debut match for him. - Porto defense (not only but mostly) struggle while under pressure from opposite team fowards. In the last game vs Sporting, central backs failed to complete a 5m pass in 5 plays in a row. They are too scared to have ball possession. Porto is conceding too much goals from individuals mistakes (failed pass, failed interception or miscommunication). Helton saved a few more with some fantastic saves, made some in last Europe League game. Resuming everything, a new defensive line-up for Porto with 2 debuts from GK Fabiano and CB Reyes, a (probably) limited CB Maicon and an adapted LB Mangala wont be able to handle a strong home team as Napoli. Porto will try to defense as much as possible but they will be so pressured by the 50.000 home fans that sooner or later some will make a mistake and the game will snowball out of control from there. I expect a strong start and a early goal (prior 20m in the game) from Napoli.
Posted on: Thu, 20 Mar 2014 08:58:20 +0000
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