TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT MON SEP 2 2013 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE...THE PROXIMITY OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH NEAR PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE TUESDAY...WHERE SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AROUND MIDWEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. A TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...HAS MOVED OFF OF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMETAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE THE LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT... OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
Posted on: Mon, 02 Sep 2013 17:36:17 +0000
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