Takis – GpoT – Istanbul A united independent Cyprus fits in the new era One substantive weakness of the parties directly involved in the Cyprus conflict, namely Turkey, Greece, and Cyprus, has been their failure to internalize the complex develop-ments in the region and to comprehend the state of flux and the new balances that are continuously reformed and reshaped in the region and the world. This weakness has been the basic reason why the Cyprus problem has been stalled for so many years. The nationalist movement that pervaded the relationships of the two communities in Cyprus as well as those of Tur-key and Greece should have faded away by 1960. Unfor-tunately, this did not happen. Nationalism continued to be the main driving force of political developments causing pain and derailing the history of the region. Huge respon-sibilities rest with the leaderships; which, instead of con-taining friction and trying to rationalize political approach-es, they fed nationalism with patriotic rhetoric, thus lead-ing to disaster. Although political and economic problems have changed political orientations in Turkey and Greece, political elites are still prone to using nationalist rhetoric in connection with the Cyprus problem with the view to making political profit. Consequently, the Cyprus conflict has for decades been the object of local and regional antagonisms along with narrow minded military calculations at a time when the whirlwind of globalization is dramatically changing the world. While the 21st century ushers in a new era, we still perceive the world in terms of the 20th, even the 19th, cen-tury. A Turkish-Greek confrontation is still being carried on in Cyprus as if the problem will ever be solved with the complete victory of the one side over the other. Political predominance has been sought first by Greece, then by Turkey albeit with no success. During the first phase, the Greek side had the upper hand but failed com-pletely to impose its conditions. Following 1974, Turkey, despite occupying 37% of Cyprus and its continued mili-tary predominance, has failed to impose a solution on its own terms. This failure could be explained to some extent by the fact that the great powers, all of which have inter-ests in the region, do not want either Greece or Turkey to take control of Cyprus and, through it, of the eastern Med-iterranean basin. Their interests converge in maintaining an independent Cyprus. The maintenance of an independ-ent Cyprus on the basis of a sustainable equilibrium be-tween Turkey and Greece seems to be nearer to how the great powers and even the coastal states of the region see their interests best served. The new data that the natural gas perspective brings to focus create an even closer convergence towards the maintenance of the independence of Cyprus. This conver-gence covers Turkey’s interests as well given that partition of Cyprus would finally deprive it from sharing the benefits of the natural gas perspective. All actors directly or indi-rectly involved in the Cyprus problem are now faced with situations that are interconnected with incomparably more complex and multi layered interests. Old patterns confined to interests and antagonisms in the triangle of Turkey, Greece, and Cyprus are not relevant any more. In an era of transnational and trans-border management, neither Cyprus nor Turkey can remain stuck to obsessions of an obsolete past. Interconnectedness and interdepend-ence are the motto of the day. Within this framework, we all need stability and security, we all need a sustainable peace in the region, which could only be achieved if both the Cyprus and the Palestinian problems were solved. From the outset, we have to take into account that unim-peded exploitation of natural gas in the eastern Mediterra-nean basin presupposes both bilateral and multilateral co-operation among the countries of the region through rele-vant agreements. This condition necessitated the bilateral agreements that the Republic of Cyprus concluded with Egypt and Israel and a still pending one with Lebanon. In a nutshell, secure exploitation of natural gas in the region depends heavily on the ability of the countries involved to come to agree on mutually beneficial, open and transpar-ent practices. Nationalist rhetoric or, even worse, national-ist obsessions have no place whatsoever in this cause. The precondition of peace and stability can only be met through win-win approaches. Secondly, the gas reserves are to be found in international waters far from our coasts. This means that exercising our sovereign rights on our EEZ, even after agreements with neighboring countries, presupposes the capability of safe-guarding the drilling installations. This constitutes a key element strengthening the need for international coopera-tion while weakening the narrow national approach of the issue. Protection of such installations is not safeguarded by patriotic verdicts but through cooperation with all those who have common interests. In this regard, it should be borne in mind that cooperating with third countries means considering their own interests and interdependences as well. Those who undertake a role in safeguarding the se-curity of the gas platforms and of the personnel thereon will, in practical terms, have a role in the management of the gas in the EEZ of Cyprus. As long as drilling was in process in plot 12 of the Cypriot EEZ there was intense presence and activity of American airplanes for 6-12 hours a day. Economic interests of companies and of states con-nected with them brought to the region more warships than those brought by regional wars. American, French, British, Russian, and German war vessels have made their presence apparent in the region while Israel has been strengthening its naval forces in order to protect its own interests. Let’s not speak about Cypriot naval forces. The only thing they can do is to move around the drilling in-stallations and carry out vigil and rescue missions when need arises. Third, the drilling budgets are of such grand scale that makes it impossible for local resources to undertake any such project. In fact no country of the region is capable of putting in the capital, the scientific and technological ex-pertise needed. Such assets are available only by transna-tional energy corporations the capabilities of which trans-cend those of state budgets of quite a lot of countries. The involvement of worldwide esteem corporations from Korea, Italy, France, and the United States create new parameters that reshape the political and economic future of Cyprus. As economy and security are interconnected, respective states come along with corporations. Not accidentally the Ambassadors of Israel and the USA were present at the signing of the contracts for installing an LNG plant in Cyprus. Fourth, drilling and management of natural gas also in-volves prospective customers who look forward to safe-guarding their energy needs. This means that prospective customers, the EU being one of the main ones, will have a say on the gas management. The EU, in particular, would not like to find itself in a situation similar to that of the Russian gas pipe interruptions some years ago. Fifth, the Republic of Cyprus, in order to safeguard its sov-ereign rights, puts forth the argument that it acts within the framework of international law and the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, and this is acknowledged by com-panies and states involved. However, the UN and the EU Commission put the additional precondition that all the population of the island should benefit from its natural wealth. The RoC readily accepts this condition but within a solution framework, which is not considered a satisfactory answer to the problem as natural gas will, in the mean-time, become a source of tension between Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots, between the RoC and Turkey. To expect that all corporations and countries involved will definitely take the side of the RoC is not a realistic expec-tation. Cyprus needs peace and stability to fully exploit its gas resources. However, Turkey as well needs a new model of cooperative relationships with Cyprus in order to benefit from the gas management projects not only in Cy-prus but in the whole region. Here comes the issue of the anomalous situation in Cyprus with Turkey bearing the main responsibility through maintaining an occupation ar-my in the northern part of Cyprus. The protraction of this anomalous situation is considerably damaging the interests of Turkey itself. Political leaders on all sides have repeatedly stated that the protraction of the Cyprus conflict is damaging their na-tional interests. However, they did not have the courage or the will to reach a compromise settlement. As long as the issue remained dormant, its protraction seemed not to pose any threat. Bur when wider interests are involved, the Cyprus conflict becomes an explosive issue. The problem that Turkey and Cyprus, in particular, have to address is to take the message on board and rationalize their approach of reality. Otherwise, if they go on insisting on con-frontational zero sum practices, the dynamics of the new era will overcome both of them. A stalemate or even worse a deterioration of the situation in the East Mediterranean because of the Cyprus problem will have extremely negative consequences not only for Cyprus and Turkey but for much more powerful actors as well. Within this framework, what is the role of the people of Cyprus as a whole? It certainly cannot be the most im-portant determinant but, under certain conditions, it might become quite substantive. This to be achieved a unifying common vision is desperately needed, a vision that might lead Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots to the new era that is ushered in. Day after day it is becoming more than clear that our interests, our existence itself, depend on our capability of reaching a settlement. We, the people of Cyprus, Greek Cypriots, Turkish Cypriots, Maronites Armenians and Latins, have to seek our own path accounting for the great powers’ antagonisms but not becoming part of them. This we can better achieve through a united and coordinated effort. It is high time we dreamed a common future and a common prosperity. Such a target will not be achieved by its own, nor just by good intentions and wishful thinking. It basically calls for a state and institutional structure of a united Cyprus that will be capable of addressing the needs and concerns of all citi-zens and normalize relations both among ourselves and with our EU partners and the rest of the world. Within such a framework we will be able to fully utilize the capabilities of our people so that all might benefit from our natural wealth. We have to work for a new Cyprus which will make use of its human capital as a whole, which will dynamically enter the age of technology thus achieving new capabilities adopted to the needs that the energy management will call for. Within this new order, apart from Cyprus as a whole, Tur-key in particular will have to benefit as it will be directly involved in the energy resources transportation and trad-ing. The complex reality and the multiple interests involved create the urgent need for a cooperative approach that will on the one hand settle age long conflicts and enmities and, on the other hand, bring peace and prosperity to Cyprus, Turkey and Greece.
Posted on: Sun, 01 Sep 2013 04:09:59 +0000
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