Tarrant Storm Warn 1:09 AM October 12, 2014. A Slight Risk of severe storms has been issued for parts of North Texas and Southern Oklahoma. SUMMARY: A Severe weather episode is expected across the region overnight Sunday into Early Monday Morning with Hail, Damaging Winds, and Some Tornadoes..... DISCUSSION: An Upper level trough will kick south eastward through the day and will send another strong cold front into the region by the overnight with increasing rain coverage/severe after Midnight. Model data has been inconsistent on timing with model runs earlier today showing a front arrival around 7 AM in DFW and now the latest data shows a frontal arrival around 3 AM in the heart of the DFW Metroplex. The Latest data has also shown discrete supercells developing in front of the Linear QLCS. With quite a bit of spin in the atmosphere at all levels and somewhat curved hodographs, the threat for tornadoes would increase. Have opted for 5% probabilities and will fine tune the tornado threat closer to the episode. As the Cold front drops south, a linear QLCS (Squall Line) segment will develop along the front and is likely to strengthen as it moves southward. Destructive Straight Line Winds will be the main threat along with some hail and isolated brief tornadoes. As a result, a 30% wind has been put into this outlook for areas mainly from DFW east and northeast. If trends continue the way they are, a hatched wind may be added to later outlooks. FORECASTER: Christian/Andrew
Posted on: Sun, 12 Oct 2014 06:32:10 +0000
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