The Perennial Boriquen Question: Statehood, Commonwealth, or Independence is Being Clarified “Puerto Ricans in their heart want independence but their brains and wallets say stay with the US and retain citizenship{paraphrased}” Lisa Pierce Flores, History of Puerto Rico Puerto Rico (PR) become an unincorporated territory of the US in 1898 as a result of the Spanish-American War. PR along with Guam, American Samoa, the Virgin Islands, the Northern Marianas, Midway Island, are the remaining colonies of the US and do not enjoy all the rights guaranteed under the US Constitution. PR is a “commonwealth” or freely associated state of the US has limited rights governed by a 1952 Constitution. The commonwealth status was envisioned as a transitional regime, either to statehood as occurred in Hawaii or to independence as occurred in the case of the Philippines. Under the 1952 constitution, persons born in Puerto Rico have the following rights and protections. Enjoy US citizenship since 1917 but it is granted by Congress and not guaranteed under the US. Constitution Enjoy internal self-government (elect governor and bicameral legislature (House 51 members; Senate 27 members) by popular vote; cabinet appointed by governor with consent of Senate; and Supreme Court Justices and judges appointed by Governor with advice and consent of Senate with compulsory retirement at age 75). No right to vote in Presidential elections buy can vote in Democratic and Republican Party presidential primaries Can elect nonvoting delegate to US House of Representatives US government handles national defense and diplomatic relations All US laws and regulations apply, including minimum wages and occupational safety requirments. Enjoys limited access to Federal entitlement programs (no SSI, no Medicaid, no Obamacare but Medicare, SNAP, TANF, Head Start) Enjoys access to Social Security Enjoys access to many Federal Grant programs Can have own its Olympic team and representation in other international events such as Miss Universe beauty pageant and sporting competitions—Pan American Games, World Basketball Championships etc. No restrictions on travel to the mainland or other US territories. Males above the age of 18 are eligible for military draft and all fit persons above the age of 17 can voluntarily join the US military force Government is subject ultimately to the US Congress under the Territory Clause of the Constitution (upheld in Harris v Rosario US Supreme Court 1980). Exempt from payment of Federal Income taxes due to fact that it has not voting representation in Congress. Would be violation of founding tenet of US, no taxation without representation. In a number of nonbinding plebiscites (1967, 1993, 1998, 2012) the status debate has been evolving. See textbox on outcomes of plebiscite below. Results of Non-binding Referendums on Political Status (Eligible Voters Island Residents and Mainland Puerto Ricans by Absentee Ballot) *1967 Plebiscite 60.7% in favor of commonwealth 39% in favor of statehood 0.6% in favor of independence *1993 Plebiscite 46.3 % in favor of commonwealth 48.6% in favor of statehood 4.4%% in favor of independence *1998 Plebiscite 46.49% in favor of Statehood 2.54% in favor of independence 50.3 % none of the above (by default commonwealth) * 2012 Plebiscite 61% Reject Current Status 39% Favor Current Status 61% Favor Statehood 33% Favor Semi-Autonomous State 6% Favor Independence Note: 20% of the Ballots were ballot for the second stage. The reasons why Puerto Ricans have historically voted for the commonwealth option are the following. First, many Puerto Ricans fear loss of “identity” especially if the English language were to become the official language. The 2011 Presidential Taskforce on Puerto Rico Status suggested that English would have to become the central language in daily life. Second, Puerto Rico under the commonwealth status is a net receiver of Federal funds. The Federal Government transfers $22 billion per year on average to the territory and receives no income taxes. If Puerto Rico were to become a state, at least $2 billion would be raised in income taxes even though 50% of the residents are below the poverty line. What is unclear is what will become of all the tax incentives for US corporations to locate manufacturing plants on the island and the rum industry rebates. Since the 1950s, Puerto Rico has depended heavily on tax incentives to convert the economy from an agrarian state to a manufacturing and tourism dependent economy. But in 2012, for the first time, a majority voted for statehood for the first time. By a 54-46% margin, votes rejected the current status. Then in a second stage, they voted 61% for statehood, 33% for semi-autonomous status, and 6% for independence. Although, there were many questions about the clarity of the questions on the referendum, it is clear that people are frustrated with the status quo and want a change. Much of the frustration seems to stem from bad economic conditions. The pro-statehood party, New Progressive Party (PNP), which trails the dominant party Popular Democratic Party (PPD) (pro-commonwealth) in both the Senate and House, captured the governorship in 2008 but failed to retain the governorship in 2012. Some senior member of party identify with the national Democratic Party and some with the national Republican Party, and despite winning the ballot on status in 2012 is not while poised to put the issue of statehood, since it neither controls the governorship or the legislature. The Independence movement garnered 4.4% of the votes in 1993, dropped to 2.54% in 1998, and rebounded to 6% in 2012. The Puerto Rico Independence Party (PIP) only holds one seat in the House and radical groups that advocated armed resistance and independence such as the Boricua Popular Army (Los Macheteros), Armed Forces of Popular Resistance, Army, Armed Forces for the National Liberation, Armed Forces of Popular Resistance, and Volunteers of the Puerto Rican Revolution are considered dormant by Federal law enforcement officials. As the radical separatist movements have faded, what has occurred is a resurgence of interest in Taino culture. A tremendous revival in all things Taino-Arawak is occurring and moves to get Puerto Ricans with Taino ancestry recognized an Indian Tribe are afoot. Under Federal Law, “recognized indigenous tribes” have many rights and benefits. Accordingly, independence movement does not seem to have much traction and the vast majority wants to retain ties to the US. The debate is shifting to what are the benefits and disadvantages to statehood, how to maneuver to attain statehood, and what should be the new economic model for the island. Below are a summary of pros and cons of statehood. Advantages of Statehood --Access to all Federal Programs --Full guarantee of all political rights under the US Constitution , will no longer be based on Congressional discretion. --Full electoral representation (two senators, representatives in Congress and right to vote for president and vice president) Disadvantages of Statehood --Will be subject to Federal income taxes --English will be the dominant language if not the official language. English language proficiency on the island is in the 20-25% range. When Arizona, Nevada, and New Mexico, all states with large Hispanic populations entered the union, English was made the official language. The current state with the lowest English proficiency at 80%, is California. At present in Puerto Rico, Spanish is the dominant language in schools, politics, banking, retail commerce, and entertainment. English is used widely in scientific circles, large corporations, and tourism and hospitality sectors. --Will no longer be able to field Olympic and international sport teams or have individual entries in world beauty contests. How feasible is the granting of Statehood to Puerto Rico? Not looking good. To become a state a majority of the residents have to petition the US Congress and then the Congress has to vote by simple majority to accept or reject. The last two states to enter the union were Alaska and Hawaii in 1959. They were paired because it was a neutral change. Alaska came in on January 3rd as a Republican state (two senators and one representative, all Republican) and Hawaii came in on August 21st as a Democratic State (two senators and one representative, all Democrat). The balance of power in Congress was unchanged. Hurdle One: Keeping Political Balance in US Congress. Thus, in practical terms for Puerto Rico to enter it would be advisable to pair it with another territory that would lean Republican. The Pro-Commonwealth Party, PPD, is currently the dominant party in Puerto Rico and is likely to vote Democratic. The other territories also tend to lean liberal and Democratic. The most mature and ready for state territory is the District of Colombia and it votes 80-90% Democratic. No political party would be high minded enough to help the opposition despite many platitudes about helping give political voice to the “colonials” of the US. This is an issue that Cuba has berated the US on in the UN year after year. Hurdle Two: Reappropriation of Seats in House of Representatives Another issue would be reappropriation of seats. Assuming that the 435 cap on the House of Representatives members were maintained, then other states would have to cede House of Representative seats to PR because PR would need 5 or 6 representative slots based on its population of 3.7 million. Each Representative is supposed to represent 485,000 voters. The Pro-Commonwealth Party in Puerto Rico, Pouplar Democratic Party (PDP)is the dominant party and they would more likely affiliate and vote with the Democrats than the Republican Party. The other likely candidate for Statehood is the District of Colombia. In the other territories the future political status is not even debated. Hurdle Three: Se Hable Ingles Aqui The real kicker for Puerto Ricans to decide on will be language. Will they be willing to accept English as the official language or the central daily language and try to keep Spanish as a co-dominant language as say what one experiences in mainland states with high Hispanic populations: New Mexico (46.7%), Texas (38.1%) California (38%), Nevada (27%), Florida (22.8%) and Arizona (22%). These communities is it quite easy to conduct one whole life in Spanish but the expectation is that in legal, business, educational, scientific circles you have to be bilingual and be willing to switch languages on a dime otherwise you will not advance. On the US mainland, it is however quite common to find third and fourth generation Hispanics who are not proficient in Spanish and it is even more common in children of intercultural and interracial marriages or unions. Hurdle Four; Cuno, la economia no sirve. The other big issue that is not well addressed is economic performance and viability. For the last four years, the island has been experiencing negative economic growth for the last four years, has a 16% unemployment rate, recurrent budget deficits, is in the midst of bond crisis (S&P lowered its rating to junk status), and has a high public debt to GDP ratio (96% in 2013—$70 billion—more than the city of Detroit). The most recent statistics available are 2011 and 2012, and indicate that 55,000 persons migrated each year to the US because of problems finding jobs and poor quality of public services. To make the case for either statehood or independence, it has to get its economic house together. The US Congress, especially a Republican controlled one, is not going to look kindly on accepting a ‘new state’ that will require even more Federal transfers that it currently receives. All the previous territories to enter the union, entered with infrastructural deficiencies but not in economic crisis. Alaska was a treasure trove of minerals and Hawaii had a booming tourism industry, thriving pineapple and fisheries sectors, and very important military bases. Compared to them, PR will not be an “easy sell”. So what is the future for Puerto Rico? Unfortunately, seems to be more of the same. Try to improve the local economy and local governance, meanwhile mass migration continues to the US mainland, and close to 4 million people remain with less than full political rights. The US Government, however, seems eager to keep strong ties with the island, but wants English as the dominant language. Sadly, Puerto Rican statehood is an issue that does not command the attention of senior leadership on either side of the aisle in the US Congress. In the 2011 report, it was recommended that plebiscites should be held every eight years, that only residents on the island be allowed to vote to avoid skewing of results by the 4.9 million Puerto Ricans that reside on the mainland and outnumber the 3.7 million on the island, and to guarantee citizenship to those who choose to accept, even if the independistas won. The Likely Choice: Ciudadanía Plena u Identidad Hispana Ultimately, it seems that Puerto Rican people will have a difficult choice full US citizenship or full Hispanic Identity. Cannot have both. The commonwealth model that is built on artificial economic incentives and limited political rights is not lightly to allow the island to be economically competitive in the long run because its cost of labor, transport, and energy are too high. Its only advantage now is that it is inside the US tariff wall, but to a foreign direct investor, why should they locate to PR when they can locate on the mainland and have the same labor cost but lower energy and transport costs and better quality of support services. The tax incentives have to compensate for these negatives and the incentives depend on the discretion of the US Congress. If Puerto Rico were to become a state, it could not depend on the Federal Government to finance these incentives, the state government would have to finance them. So at the end of the day, political status is just part of the conversation, the economy has to be reformed and transformed. This is the unstudied question. This is the 800 lb gorilla in the room.
Posted on: Mon, 15 Sep 2014 01:21:36 +0000
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