"The Philippines already did 8.4 percent quarterly growth in the first quarter of 2010, under the much hated President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo. She did it even while being accused of massive corruption. That 8.4 percent was no fluke. Arroyo followed that up with an even higher growth rate—8.9 percent in the second quarter of 2010—in her last three months in office. That is the best quarterly economic growth ever in a generation. The Philippines was already No. 38 in competitiveness in 2000 under another much maligned President, Joseph Ejercito Estrada. He did it while being accused of corruption. (He was facing an impeachment trial). He was ousted January of the following year even after scoring the best competitiveness ranking for the Philippines in more than a decade. Ironically, this year, one of the reasons cited why the Philippines supposedly improved both its economic growth and its competitiveness is: We have a honest President, BS Aquino. But two supposedly dishonest presidents scored much better than Aquino—Arroyo on record quarterly economic growth and Estrada on the best global competitiveness ranking of the Philippines ever. Quarterly growth under Arroyo was 8.4% in the first quarter of 2010—0.6 percentage points higher than Aquino’s highest so far of 7.8%. If an honest president (Aquino) can achieve 7.8% quarterly growth rate, how come a dishonest president (Arroyo) can do better at 8.4%? In fact, under a supposedly dishonest President, the Philippine economy had done much better. President Arroyo saved the Philippines from a crippling global recession in 2008 with an 1.1 [ercemt economic growth in 2009—one of only four countries in the world able to score positive growth following the worst slowdown in 80 years. The much despised President followed that up with a sterling 8.4 percent first quarter growth and 8.9 percent second quarter growth in 2010 for an unprecedented 8.65 percent semestral growth in the first half of 2010—when nobody was paying attention to her anymore. Economic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan points out that in two years under President Aquino, per capita income increased by 11 percent. That’s an average per capita income increase of 5.5 percent per year. “Per capita GDP grew by 6.1 percent in the first quarter of 2013, faster than the 4.7 percent growth a year ago. This means that from the first quarter of 2011 to the first quarter of 2013, per capita GDP has increased by 11%, in real terms,” Balisacan told newsmen in his briefing on the economy. Note, however, that under President Arroyo, per capita gross national income, at current prices, increased from $1, 346 in 2004 to $2,872 in 2010, a period of seven years. That’s an increase of 113.3 percent in seven years or an average gain of 16.19 percent PER YEAR, despite a surge in population of about 15 million more Filipinos. Per capita GNI (at constant prices) increased from $1,425 in 2004 to $1,848 in 2010, a jump of 29.68 percent in seven years or 4.2 percent per year but that was because global recession ensued in 2008 and the economic challenges were much more daunting than today. The whole year growth of 7.6 percent in 2010 could have been higher but growth rate slowed down as soon as Aquino took over as President—to 7.3 percent in the third quarter and 6.1 percent in the fourth. The slowdown would continue in the following months. That 7.6 percent growth in 2010 can clearly be credited to Arroyo because a full year after President Aquino took over, growth slumped to just 3.9 percent in 2011, derailing the economy’s upward momentum. Why did the economy slow down in 2011? One simple reason: Aquino refused to spend P147 billion of infra money for fear it would be stolen. If an honest President can achieve No. 38 competitiveness ranking how can a supposedly dishonest President (Estrada) can achieve the same No. 38 ranking? Performance matters The only conclusion one can make from these two paradoxes: There is little relationship between honesty in governance and economic growth, no relationship between honesty in governance and improvement in a country’s competitiveness. What moves the economy and what improves competitiveness is only one factor— performance and delivery of basic services."
Posted on: Sat, 08 Jun 2013 15:15:27 +0000
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