The Swiss bank Credit Suisse has led the knife sharpening, issuing an admonitory note saying that Scotland could face a deep recession should its people vote to secede from the UK. The re-domiciling of the financial sector and UK public service jobs, as well as a legal dispute over North Sea oil, would further accelerate any downturn. In our opinion, as North Sea oil production slows, we estimate that the non-oil economy would need a 10% to 20% devaluation to restore competitiveness. This would require a 5% to 10% fall in wages, driven by a steep rise in unemployment, the banks economists wrote. The bank also predicts constitutional issues for an independent Scotland, as well as difficulties for the remainder of the UK in case of a Yes vote. We believe a yes vote would result in a constitutional crisis until Scottish MPs are excluded from Westminster. When they are, the Conservatives would have an ongoing electoral advantage in the UK, analysts wrote. A TNS poll has shown that 51% of voters plan to vote No, with 51% voting Yes. Over the weekend, a YouGov poll showed that the Yes campaign held a marginal lead, as Scotland prepares to head to the polls on 18 September.
Posted on: Wed, 10 Sep 2014 12:15:35 +0000
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