"The goal is not to resolve, but to perpetuate the conflict. It is unacceptable to Western policymakers that al-Assad emerge victorious in the conflict, as he stands poised to do in the near-to-medium term. However, a rebel victory is not a plausible option at the moment either—even if the US agreed to a Libya-style intervention (insofar as “victory” is understood as liberal or West-compliant factions of the rebels being able to effectively seize, wield, and maintain power and legitimacy in the aftermath of al-Assad being deposed). So because the “right” people are not able to win, the goal is to prevent anyone from prevailing. The strategy will allow Hezbollah, the Syrian Army, and al-Qaeda to tear one-another down, too consumed by the conflict with one-another to pose a meaningful threat to the West, its allies, or its interests. Simultaneously, the “allied” forces will attempt to build up the capacity of the “good guys” until they are capable of rendering a more acceptable military solution viable. Finally, laboring under the delusion that “equalizing force” will somehow bolster rather than prevent a negotiated settlement, they will also continue their inconsistent and half-hearted pursuit of a diplomatic resolution—even as they continue to undermine these efforts by insisting that the President step down as a precondition to talks. One way or another, the war will not be permitted to end unless and until the US achieves its goal. Of course, this strategy is incalculably devastating to the people of Lebanon, Syria and the greater region—but that is of little concern. Just as geopolitical interests trump “intelligence,” they trump morality as well."
Posted on: Fri, 30 Aug 2013 13:27:54 +0000
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