The immigration vortex James Morris Labour cannot duck the issue of immigration, suggests James Morris For the last five years global political elites have been consumed by one issue: the economy. For voters, the picture has been different. I have run focus groups in Johannesburg where voters complained about Zimbabweans taking their jobs; in Bucharest where the concern was Hungarian language enclaves; and in Roanoke, Virginia, Republicans were rebelling over automated phonelines asking them to ‘press 1 for English, 2 for Spanish’. In the UK, YouGov now finds C2DE voters prioritise immigration over the economy by 13 points. In 1994, on average less than four per cent of the population said immigration or race was one of the top issues facing the country; 20 years later the number is 10 times higher. As pro-immigration columnists regularly point out, fear of immigration is nothing new. But the ubiquity and enduring nature of a concern is not a reason to dismiss it, particularly as it is increasingly taking electoral form. Here in the UK we have the United Kingdom Independence party in the teens in most polls. Their voters are three times more likely to say immigration is a top priority than to highlight Europe. The Austrian Freedom party is back at 20 per cent. The Tea party has tightened its grip on the Republicans in the United States. In France Marine Le Pen has revitalised the Front National. For parties of the centre-left, the politics of immigration are particularly difficult. The left has a proud history of fighting racism, which in the 1970s and 1980s primarily meant defending immigrant communities. More recently, technocrats have reduced the question of immigration to its significance for macroeconomic growth. Both these forces push towards entrenching an uber-liberal approach. Across Europe, the moderating forces inside social democratic parties have often been weak. In this context, it is tempting for politicians to take the easy route – pleasing their party base by emphasising the benefits of immigration and keeping quiet about the costs. It takes strong leadership to navigate a party on a course that offers a genuine change. The starting point for change is emotional. The ‘Mrs Duffy’ moment was so damaging to Labour in 2010 because it encapsulated a fear that had been building for years: that New Labour looked down its nose at people who were worried about immigration. Labour won few votes among those who saw immigration as their most important issue, but it lost plenty among people who felt the party disdained their views. Beyond its electoral impact, voter distrust of a party’s motivation cripples efforts to escape a narrow politics of numbers. Voters will not come on a journey if they suspect ulterior motives when parties argue that there is more to immigration policy than numbers. Parties have to show voters that their starting point is the interests of citizens who elect the government, pay taxes and want a fair deal. Second, parties have to show they can manage the system effectively. This means rules that are fair to a country’s citizens as well as immigrants, and strong enforcement of those rules. Around the world, voters rarely think their immigration system delivers. Two-thirds of Americans think the immigration system is either completely or mostly broken. Two-thirds of French people want border controls to be restored. In the UK, 77 per cent think it is unlikely that David Cameron will deliver on his immigration cap, while the proportion who say the Tories would be best on immigration has halved since they have been in government. The right reassurance on management can make a big difference. Support for immigration reform in the US jumps when it requires immigrants to pay back-taxes, learn English and pass background checks. A recent poll for British Future found that by 72 per cent to 10 per cent, voters agree that ‘immigrants coming to Britain have got to learn the language, work hard and pay taxes, fit in and be part of the community. If they do that, we should welcome them to the UK.’ Third, and most important, politicians need to offer voters answers to the problems they blame on immigration. Immigration is a vortex issue: it sucks in concerns about housing, wages, benefits, jobs, public services, community cohesion and crime. Recent European immigration creates a new set of issues as young workers expecting to be here for a short period of time compete with tradespeople trying to support families in Britain in the midst of a cost of living crisis. The answer includes policy that addresses specific concerns about immigration – for example, Labour’s proposal to ensure companies train local workers if they also need to bring in workers from abroad. But often it involves dealing with broader issues: housing supply, enforcement of the minimum wage, reforming the European Union. The perceived credibility of these policies depends on the first and second points above. Once a party has these three components in place it can make an argument that voters are open to: that certain sorts of immigration are good for a country. Voters are not dumb – they know that high-skilled immigrants, students, entrepreneurs and hard workers can help. People committed to contributing can become customers or even employers. Voters are open to the right sort of managed system. But they will not buy it from politicians they do not trust. When Ed Miliband highlighted the need for Labour to recognise the unequal impacts of immigration in the speech that launched his leadership bid, he showed that he is a leader voters can trust on immigration. Yvette Cooper’s emphasis on tackling the unequal impact of immigration, proper controls and enforcement sets a course for Labour to rebuild voters’ faith. Labour cannot duck the issue of immigration – we must continue to show that we have changed on immigration. ——————————————————— James Morris is director of the European office at Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and a former speechwriter for Ed Miliband progressonline.org.uk/2014/02/07/the-immigration-vortex/#sthash.ROg55jyC.dpuf
Posted on: Fri, 07 Feb 2014 10:36:48 +0000
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