The smart little spanish boy playing with the monsoon : El Ninos location, not intensity, impacts monsoon ; The Monsoons recovery, with about half of India receiving normal rains and the national deficit down to 25% from 43%, might have something to do with the location of the current El Nino rather than its intensity. Indicating that the El Ninos much vaunted relationship with the Indian Monsoon is at the least complicated, research suggests the weather phenomenons strength may not be the only factor affecting rainfall. The correlation between an El Ninos intensity and the Monsoon seems weaker if its impact is also gauged by the location of warm waters in the Pacific, a paper on USs national El Nino monitor says. The conclusion comes at a time when the Monsoon has really recovered well in India in the past two weeks. As compared to sub-normal rains in June, the country is likely to receive rainfall of 93% of the Long Range Forecast (LPA) in July. It will improve a bit further as rainfall of 96% of the LPA is expected in August. The paper on the national oceanic and atmospheric administration (NOAA) site says that while five of Indias major droughts since 1950 coincided with El Nino, the phenomenon did not always spell trouble. During 14 El Nino years, summer rains ranged from well below average to average and even above average, Tom Di Liberto writes in his paper ENSO (El Nino southern oscillation) and the Indian monsoon...not as straightforward as youd think. Current El Nino conditions, which has not yet been declared as one, show warming to be highest off the south and central America. The warming is 0-1.5 degrees C in most of the Pacific. The paper argues that stronger El Ninos did not necessarily mean poor rainfall and suggests that location might be as important with events that occurred in the east Pacific being less impactful. In 2002, when India experienced a very dry monsoon, the warming of Pacific was located in the central part of the ocean. In 1997, when one of the 20th centurys strongest El Nino happened, India was unaffected. Indian experts are more cautious in drawing their conclusions, saying that the effects the El Nino were far from well understood. But they do agree that this years El Nino may prove less impactful. The more dire forecasts with a private forecasters predicting a 60% possibility of drought seem an over-estimate as the atmospheric disruption that accompanies an El Nino has not occurred. The Indian ocean dipole (IOD), a key variable tracking the difference in temperatures between two points in the ocean, also remains neutral and this suggests the monsoon could escape major damage on this score. Di Liberto points out that degree to which the east-west/ west-east circulation shifts in the region of Indonesia is what really matters for the monsoon in India. During El Nino events, the upward branch shifts east while more sinking motion (anomalous high surface pressure) occurs around Indonesia, he writes. If the ocean warming is mostly in the central Pacific, sinking branches of the circulation expand to include India, reducing the Indian monsoon, the paper says. On the other hand, If warming shifts to the far eastern Pacific, the sinking branch may not affect the monsoon. follo: Rain Post a comment
Posted on: Sun, 27 Jul 2014 11:30:28 +0000
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