The well-hyped (and misforecast by the hypemonger) 96L is currently north of Hispaniola and beginning its march into a more favorable environment over the Bahamas. This system should slowly get its act together and get designated as Cristobal by tomorrow. Is it a threat to us? As of now, probably not. Modeling prevents this storm from getting up to our latitude before bouncing it northeast into the Atlantic. More below. Could it graze, brush, impact the Southeast coastline? Yes. The GFS and Euro bring the center within 150-200 miles of the Carolinas between Monday and Wednesday. It could fester off of the Southeast coast for a few days before a late week trough/cool front pull the storm northeast and into the open Atlantic. While the bounce into the Atlantic is the most likely outcome, its not on lock (yet) so we will keep a half an eye on this system, computer modeling, and trends over the coming days. How about intensity? Modeling does suggest Cristobal could reach hurricane intensity in a few days but no rapid intensification looms as the environment, while more favorable, is not ideal for explosive intensification of the storm.
Posted on: Sat, 23 Aug 2014 12:00:01 +0000
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