There has been a major surprise today. The low that was expected to come through this afternoon and evening creating a big outbreak of storms took a very unexpected turn. It got caught by another low to the south of it with a broader area of circulation. The first low has turned back to the southeast...the complete OPPOSITE direction that it had been expected to travel. The two lows are combining into one, and this new low created out of the combination will have a great effect now on Sundays weather as it comes through. So what is triggering the storms developing over Northern California now? That would be an influx of moisture coming in propelled by the lows, and we also have a bit of a shortwave bringing renewed instability. But, the coverage of storms and the intensity of them is going to be far less than what was expected this morning when it was believed the first low was going to come through our area and turn northeast. So now the models indicate a widespread thunderstorm event for Sunday in which everybody....and I do mean EVERYBODY should get a look at storms. That includes all areas west of the Cascades to the Coast. This new bigger low will be moving through the area and it will track just off shore and then come slightly inland. That would favor a big outbreak of thunderstorms for areas west of the Cascades. These storms are also likely going to produce some severe weather as well with possible wind gusts to 50 miles an hour or more, and also the possibility of hail. So basically, what we expected to see this afternoon and evening has been pushed back 48 hours. This is the nature of dealing with these cutoff lows. They can be very tricky devils to try to get the details and timing right on.
Posted on: Sat, 12 Jul 2014 00:48:26 +0000
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