There have been several uprisings in Africa and Arabia that have certainly culminated in the collapse of regimes in Africa and Arabia, notably Tunisia, Libya, Egypt. Ivory Coast, Borkina Faso, Yemen, Central Africa and in Syria Assad is surviving on the skin of a tooth. That all these happened after Obama Cairo Speech is by no means accidental. That is probably for another day. With the fall of Egypt, Ivory Coast, Tunisia and now Borkina Faso regimes, the Ugandans who are worn out by President Museveni have a new sense of optimism and are looking forward to toasting champagne. I submit though that this optimism isn’t a mirage. We ought to note though that for a regime to last more than two decades it will have certainly metamorphosized into a military regime. Military systems too develop into a stage where like political parties or organizations own networks of civil masses. For instance in Uganda civil populations manning critical areas like transport, down town business, religious institutions and some cultural institutions are owned by the military establishment. Mrs Jackline Mbabazi refers to their leadership as Lumpens. In Kenya, the Intelligence and the Military determine the Head of State. That’s why they have settled to the consensus of the family away from the Tribe consensus. ( see how Uhuru salutes ki civilian) The same is true for Egypt etc. In Egypt, when the anti-military population rose up, the military gave in temporally but later deployed its allied population as cover for a coup. Now the military is in complete charge. In Borkina Faso, the elite presidential guard overthrew the military that allied with the masses. In essence, its now the same system that maintained Blaise Compaore that is in charge. The HYBRID situations of Egypt and Borkino Faso obtain here. Here, the military has its own masses, and a presidential guard that has progressed from a tribal consensus to the family consensus. Un like in Egypt and Borkina Faso, the other military of Gen Katumba would instantly face fire on allying with the other anti- regime masses. We would therefore have the Syria and Libya situations. A creeping but very destructive civil conflict. I note though, when Kenya Odinga masses rose up, president Kagame opined for a military intervention. A coup of some sort. The Kenya military opted for politics of inclusion and destroyed the Mungiki…the lumpens. Certainly Rwanda’s Kagame was apprehensive of the instability in Kenya because it impacts on his State security being the link to the Sea Port Mombasa. I have submitted before, and I still do, that the instability in South Sudan impacted on our State- Security, and Museveni had to occupy Juba. In the same breath, the instability in Kampala would destablise would negatively impact Kigali and therefore Kagame would equally occupy Kampala. It could be direct by eliminating the family consensus and or through proxies like General Muntu of FDC. And that’s why Muntu Besigye divide is very interesting. Is this scenario farfetched? I think not. One needs to follow up the recent UPDF High Command meeting and SOP CODE 141.
Posted on: Tue, 04 Nov 2014 07:33:31 +0000
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