This Melbourne Cup is the strongest EVER. A lot of very very good horses and wont be easy to get the winner. But DANDINO $12 is still my top pick after 2 months of studying, from SEVILLE $16 and ROYAL EMPIRE $21. SEVILLE has the same owner as last years winner and they are very confident with him. ROYAL EMPIRE is the Sheiks best horse he has brought to Australia in 15 years. There is another dozen that could run a place though. SUPER COOL is far and away the best roughie in the race, I will be backing him. Currently $51. Ibicenco, Mourayan, Ethiopia and Red Cadeaux are the only ones that I think are absolutely no hope of a place. A lot of the foreigners are very good this year but they are having their first start in Australia. Only ONE overseas horse has ever won the Melbourne Cup without having an earlier run in Australia before heading to the Cup, and that was Vintage Crop 20 years ago (in the mud). So you would assume that Dunaden, Red Cadeaux, Brown Panther, Mount Athos, Voleuse de Couers, Verema and Tres Blue are unlikely to win. I dont think Caulfield Cup winner FAWKNER will run the distance right out, GREEN MOON has a lot of weight and is tough but isnt a superstar, FIORENTE is a massive chance but Im going to leave it out of my top 3 as it had a very tough run last start. I backed MOUNT ATHOS on raceday last year but it was going a lot better then and I think it is very bad value this year. BROWN PANTHER is a super horse but is badly weighted against some of his fellow overseas horses. But he is a very good horse!!!! I think SEA MOON, DEAR DEMI, VEREMA and SIMENON are great place chances. You could do a lot worse than putting a box trifecta on with all the foreign horses in it.
Posted on: Sun, 03 Nov 2013 08:01:47 +0000
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