This Saturday is the 100th anniversary of the assassination of Austrian Archduke Franz Ferdinand, the clear trigger for WWI. The modern map of the Middle East was drawn by Europeans after that conflict as they picked over the remains of the defeated Ottoman Empire (that had allied with Germany and Austria-Hungary). 100 years later, that map looks set to change again. We should embrace this. As I argued in the Hill, we stand to gain more through exploiting the regions chaos than by submitting to the false notion of stability. We simply cant keep the Middle East together at a cost that the American people are willing to pay and in the end, it is not even clear it could be achieved at any price except a price akin to what Europe paid in their Thirty Years War. I harp on this point because being sucked into this swirling vortex will not solve the fundamental issues and will only further distract us from the rise of China in the East and our main geopolitical challenge for the next at least half century. America needs to be strategic, not foolhardy. Obamas instinctive reticence to intervene is smarter than the knee jerk desire to intervene. Too bad his response is not strategic and does not tie into a larger global strategy except, largely, disengagement. We have opportunities but we seem incapable of embracing them by holding on to old notions. Geopolitics is back. Great Power conflict is back. The post-WWII order is dead and the ghosts of WWI continue to haunt us, but we can take the initiative.
Posted on: Mon, 23 Jun 2014 10:12:23 +0000
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