This comment is going to get some hackles raised but I see the label futurist used a lot and it is really annoying. For me the only people with a line into prognosticating about the future are those who have studied some hard sciences and a lot of history to sufficient degree. Otherwise Ive found that the necessary cross discipline knowledge that one would need to even be in the ballpark of right simply doesnt exist. I have read one wonky idea after another that immediately betrays the ignorance of the futurist on one or another deep area of Scientific or engineering investigation that just makes it embarrassing to read. If you purport to be a futurist of nanotechnology trends youd better know how to balance a chemical equation. If you purport to be a futurist of robotics trends please tell me you know what control systems theory is...and have worked problems in the s domain. If you purport to be a futurist of artificial intelligence you had better know who Alan Kay was and what hes famous for doing....and you better know how to code in at least 4 different languages. If you purport to be a futurist on the connectedness of human society through the virtual and real domains youd better know what the OSI stack is. If you purport to be a futurist on the super mortality of the human species...youd better know who Shinya Yamanaka was and why his work earned him a Nobel in 5 years. If you purport to be a futurist on the future of governmental systems youd better have a shit ton of reading done on past economic systems on the stagnation of growth that capitalism often suffers from and be aware of ways that technology could potentially make government significantly more efficient going forward. Know who John Von Neumann was and why his work is critical to predictions in this space. There are a lot of you out there....writing books on areas you havent worked in or done research on and making sufficient noise in social media to get articles at this or that futurist blog but the proof is in the outcomes of your predictions. But thats the game then isnt it? Most futurists remain silent when some prognostication of theirs falls flat....they just continue going on prognosticating about shit they dont understand, its sort of like astrology in that it produces this faux euphoria in the moment of the prediction being read by laymen who dont know better, which is often flowered over in paragraphs with one what if after another with no basis in causative action for supposing the possibility in the first place (you know how science is supposed to work). Hence the reason for people who do the actual *building and inventing of the future* to keep an eye on this stuff to keep the discussions grounded or at least to clearly point out the crazy from the merely stupid. Youre welcome. FYI
Posted on: Tue, 02 Sep 2014 08:38:56 +0000
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