This is my current analysis of the Cy Young race. Now, if you disagree with me, awesome, please discuss your reasons in detail and address the SUBSTANCE of the argument rather than just find a couple of things I may be wrong on that completely misses the point of the argument, as I often find here. I dont have a problem admitting Im wrong so long as the person making me realize it is doing it by giving me a respectful and coherent argument about why my opinion or analysis is incorrect. First, the stats. Christopher Allen Sale - 12-3, 1.99 ERA, 163 IP, .920 WHIP, 2.50 FIP, 192 Ks & 10.6 K/9 Additional Cy Young considerations: -Chris Sale pitches out of a hitter-friendly park. -Chris Sale last year finished in the top 5 of voting and was looking like the possible winner up until very near the end of the season. - Chris Sale has pitched significantly less innings than Felix due to early season health issues where he was shut down . Felix Abraham Hernandez Garcia - 14-5, 2.12 ERA, 212 IP, .915 WHIP, 2.59 FIP 217 Ks, 9.2 K/9 Additional Cy Young considerations: -Felix pitches out of a well-known pitcher-friendly park. -Felix has already won a Cy Young award, which may not disqualify him but it gives Chris Sale a slight edge because even outside of baseball, people usually avoid repeat winners if theyre decided by a vote. This may require Felix to truly overtake Sale statistically to win it all again. First off, as I mentioned earlier, I think the first thing everyone needs to throw out of the window are the innings totals. Why is that? Because were talking about statistics here, and anyone whos taken a statistics class, knows mathematics well enough, or knows sabermetrics and advanced statistics understands that the sample size for both pitchers are large enough. Even with 50 innings separating them, theres a reason why theres a threshold for how many innings a pitcher must play to be considered, and thats because thats where the sample size is considered large enough to where its not considered as a statistical disadvantage against pitchers who have played more. Again, thats not to say that it wont be a consideration, it simply is unlikely that the innings difference will be a make or break detail. A big thing to note before I go into the stats that separate them is how similar their stat lines are where it can matter the most. Felix narrowly edges out Chris Sale with WHIP by .005 walks and hits per inning, so Felix right now is pitching .05% better when it comes to the amount of walks and hits they give up each frame. WHIP is a big stat for pitchers, and if either of these two guys break away here that pitcher could easily win on that statistic alone. The other statistic that I personally find very important that others might not is FIP, which is a stat that calculates what a pitchers ERA would look like if they received league-average defense from their teams. BOTH are higher than their actual ERA, suggesting both have had above-average defending and perhaps a little bit of luck on their side too. Both are pretty similar with Sale having the better mark. This stat wont lose or win anyone an award, but it could be significant for the advanced metrics conscious Cy Young voter. All of that said, when it comes to the things theyre not alike on, such as ERA, Chris Sale has broken away after todays start, lowering his to 1.99 and Felix staying steady at 2.12. When it comes to strikeouts, Sale edges Felix by striking out 1.5 more batters every 9 innings than Felix. As I said previously, if things remain as they are, itll be a tough race, but I think ultimately the Cy Young votes will favor Chris Sale because overall, Felix only equals Chris Sale on everything but innings pitched, and Chris Sale edges Felix on both strikeouts and ERA. If one of these guys has a bad start this month, their stat line could be thrown for a loop. Remember last September when the baseball world went from talking about Who will win, Chris Sale or Max Scherzer? to Max Scherzer will win the Cy Young after that fateful bad start sale had in September, and their innings totals were far apart as well. Things to watch for this month: Felix Hernandez WHIP. If he can make headway on it by October, or if Sale has control issues or guys start hitting off him, I believe he could win the Cy Young even with a higher ERA. In fact, this is really the only scenario I see where Felix can win the Cy Young without outright having a better ERA, Chris Sales Strikeouts: If all things remain equal and he keeps pitching to a 2 ERA the rest of the month, and Chris Sale further improves on his 10.6 K/9 clip, that may be the thing to win him the award. Also remember guys, the Cy Young award is based on a weighted voting system, so all of the people voting may have a completely different outlook on what constitutes the best pitcher in the league and the aggregate for that may not reflect statistics in any way whatsoever.
Posted on: Thu, 11 Sep 2014 22:23:43 +0000
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