This is the state of play as I see it. Hillary is the only major Democrat likely to run and she leads all the most likely GOP candidates by at least 8.8 points in early polls. This is based on Hillarys personal popularity and the favorable demographics of the Democratic coalition. Two other factors of the economy getting better and the GOP primaries making Republicans less popular would tend to expand her lead in early 2016 as well. Other factors could intervene. The GOP could run a super-genius campaign and Hillary could be thoroughly ineffective. Likewise, the economy could go South or there could be major terrorist attacks. But the underlying dynamics very much favor a substantial Hillary victory.
Posted on: Fri, 09 Jan 2015 21:39:03 +0000
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