Thoughts on our current adventure in the Middle east: as much as the US government would love to have the Kurds do the dirty work of fighting ISIS, it only cares about the Kurds to the extent that they can further US interests. If forced to choose (as they may well be forced to) the US government would rather have the Turkish government on its side than the Kurds. The Turks have the most effective military in the region and are NATO members. They also have a bloody history with the Kurds and are probably more than content to allow them to twist in the wind under withering ISIS attacks. Many in the Turkish gov no doubt hope both sides bleed each other dry. Thus the US hasnt done much to help the besieged Kurds in Kobani. US officials have stated that air strikes are concentrated on command and control/ communications related targets, which leads me to believe that the US gov hopes that ISIS will splinter into smaller, more manageable groups. This probably isnt the worst strategy, given that radical groups of all kinds have a tendency to splinter into smaller groups. This is a poor way to go about it though. People love a winner, and lately ISIS has been #winning more than Charlie Sheen. Theyre coming off a series of improbable and highly visible victories. Standing idly by and allowing ISIS another major victory at Kobani will only increase their morale, and make a splinter that much less likely, not to mention itll be a propaganda coup that increases their ability to recruit fighters and raise money. If they were smart US policy makers would do everything they could to prevent that victory but i guess they feel trapped by their need to placate the Turkish gov, or they just dont think preventing ISISs victory(and the ensuing bloodbath) is worth antagonizing the Turks. This of course raises the question of how much the US gov actually believes its rhetoric around ISIS and how much of it is just the normal war mongering propaganda people of all nations are periodically force fed by their leaders. Dont get me wrong; ISIS is a bunch of murderous assholes who view war and violence as an opportunity to enrich themselves and increase their political standing. So in this sense, theyre not that different from most of the other major players in the conflict.
Posted on: Fri, 10 Oct 2014 10:34:54 +0000
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