Thunderstorm potential - update. From Thursday night to Saturday there is a thunderstorm risk across England and parts of Wales. Based on current model output we are keeping a close eye on the first batch of thundery weather moving across the South West of England, possibly extending in to South Wales late Thursday night and during the early hours of Friday morning. The models are picking up on some very heavy rainfall, this may end up further West as we nearer the time frame (affecting only extreme SW England) or the setup may end up further East, if it does end up positioning further east, more areas will be affected by the initial development. Localised thunderstorms may also develop affecting Channel coasts. High energy levels associated with a plume of very warm, moist unstable air will bring the risk of embedded, mainly elevated electrical storms. Now the tricky bit comes throughout Friday and in to Saturday. The models are showing some extremely intense energy, in fact the CAPE values(convective available potential energy) are maxed out for a lot of areas and match the type of values we would see in the states. You may not understand the technical jargon but the easiest way to put it is that any storms that do develop during the day from surface based energy (very warm temperatures and high surface temperatures triggering the storms), will be like bombs going off. Night time thunderstorms with high energy values will produce a firework display (mainly elevated) with CC (cloud to cloud) and IC (inner cloud) lightning. We have a series of fronts moving through so forecasts for exact locations are not possible just yet as thunderstorms are always a developing situation. We will be doing a lot of now-casting during Friday and Saturday. Timing and positioning is crucial with these type of events as you need that elusive trigger for thunderstorm development. Personally, I have a lot of experience with forecasting thunderstorms and getting up close and personal. I have not seen such a setup on the forecast models that looks this promising (if you love thunderstorms) for a number of years. Forecast data and conditions do change but at the moment the potential for severe thunderstorms is there and it would take an absolute turn around from the models to cancel this out. Which is always the case with thunderstorms, some areas may miss them entirely, yet a few miles down the road may get hit pretty bad. We will firm up on the details within the next 24-36 hours. At the moment the following areas are at greatest risk; SW England and parts of Wales late Thursday night/early hours of Friday morning (This is something we are keeping a close eye on). 40% risk. - Heavy thundery rain. Friday-Saturday. South, South East, Midlands, East Anglia, Yorkshire, Lincolnshire, North West England, North East England - Severe storm potential. Possibly extending in to Scotland later (although not as severe). You can access our high resolution weather charts by signing up to our premium service. These charts are the best out there and have been specifically developed to how I want them. There is currently an offer on subscription. Go to premium.ukweatherforecast.co.uk for more information. Lewis
Posted on: Wed, 16 Jul 2014 10:18:37 +0000
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