To all my English speaking friends! Is Putin right when he says that it is mostly Russians who live in the Southern and Eastern parts of Ukraine? No, says Valentine Gladkykh, PhD and a Senior Advisor at Verkhovna Rada, Ukraines parliament. It is an evidence of propaganda to state that there are sharply defined lines between the Russian and Ukrainian speaking in Ukraine. But Putin has his reasons to highlight differences where there are none, really. Read Valentines comments on the current situation in Ukraine. Some facts against Putins proganda. The new government was confirmed in Ukrainian parliament by the constitutional majority. Moreover this government was formed not only by the members of the former opposition, but many the former ruling party supporters also joined this government. All powerful Ukrainian oligarchs have declared their support to this government. At least two of them agreed to become governors in two Ukrainian regions (Donetsk region – Mr.Taruta and Dnipropetrovsk region – Mr. Kolomoiskyi). It helped to demonstrate that the new power in Ukraine is not going to take a revenge and it is ready to cooperate with supporters of former President Victor Yanukovich. I believe that it will help to fix the political situation in Ukraine. The confirmation of the new government is also a good sign for EU, IMF and USA which have declared their readiness to cooperate with this new government and promised to support Ukraine. The confirmation of the new government was enough to stop the falling down of Ukrainian currency. Now we have quite stable currency exchange rate regardless to the very difficult situation in Crimea and near our long borders with Russia. Now it is much more easier to buy dollar or euro in Kyiv than to sell it. It looks like everybody expects the revaluation of Ukrainian currency because of financial helps from EU and US. I am sure that it is the first step toward the resolving of Ukrainian political and economical problems. Nevertheless recently in some regions there were some mutinies against the self proclaimed central power in Kyiv, but all of them were directly inspirited and openly supported by Russian citizens who came (or were sent) to Ukraine from neighboring regions of Russia to destabilize the situation. These facts of the large scale direct Russian citizens participation in the meetings in Kharkiv, Odessa, Donetsk, Luhansk are documented. Of course, it doesnt mean that there is no the pro Russian attitude and lobby in Ukraine. But we should be aware that the vast majority of so-called pro Russian people belongs to the old generation and indeed these people have not the modern Russian identity or the Russian ethnicity and origination but they have mostly the Soviet identity and warm sentiments toward former USSR. Thus a conflict between the so-called pro European vast majority and the so-called pro Russian minority is not the clash between Ukrainian nationalists and a Russian minority, it is a clash between the modern Ukrainian identity and the Soviet identity. By the way, there are 17% ethnical Russians in Ukraine and they live in peace all around Ukraine. There is no particular territory in Ukraine where Russian minority lives. So the situation is not like in Kosovo, Transnistria, Abkhazia or Southern Ossetia where minorities have been living in particular territories. The situation in Crimea can be regarded as the similar to the mentioned above regions only for Crimean Tatars minority, but not for the Russian one. The talks about religious differences which can cause conflict between different religious groups are nonsense too. First of all, after Soviet era the Ukrainian society is mostly secular and people are not religious. The influence of religious leaders and institutions on society is very low. Most Ukrainians go to the church two times per year: to celebrate Christmas and Easter. For most of them it is impossible to differ and identify the different Christian denominations. Most of Ukrainians are sure that they are followers of Ukrainian orthodox church regardless to the split between different orthodox churches in Ukraine. Moreover all churches have followers in all regions of Ukraine. It is totally wrong to suppose that ethnical Ukrainians support Ukrainian Orthodox Church of Kyiv Patriarchy in so-called Western Ukraine and ethnical Russians support Ukrainian Orthodox Church of Moscow Patriarchy in so-called Eastern Ukraine. The same situation is with the languages. Almost all Ukrainians all around Ukraine can speak Russian language as well as Ukrainian language. Indeed there is no discrimination against so-called Russian speaking persons ( by the way most of them ethnically are Ukrainians not Russians and most of them are bilingual Ukrainian–Russian speaking persons, most of them are not pro Russians at all!). Nobody is forced to speak only Ukrainian or to study only Ukrainian. Moreover even now everywhere in Ukraine it is much more easier to buy Russian language books, newspapers, magazines, movies etc than the same one in Ukrainian language. Of course, there are some radical groups with strong anti-Ukrainian language attitude or strong anti-Russian language attitude. For example, some parents dont want their children to learn Ukrainian language at school, regarding the obligatory learning of Ukrainian language at secondary school as a discrimination. At the same time, they are not deprived the right to learn Russian language at school. So we should be aware that for many pro Russians the bilingual system, for which they struggle, means not the necessity to know two languages but the right not to know Ukrainian language at all. Fortunately, the people who share such a strange point of view are tiny minorities, marginals. So the issue of languages in Ukraine doesnt matter for the vast majority especially among young generation. The very popular in Russia rhetoric devoted to Ukrainian extremists, nationalists, fascists who caught the power in Ukraine is pure fiction. Of course, among protestors were many different groups and some of them could be radical or nationalistic. But first of all there is no reason to overestimate the number of these groups members, its influence on society and the measure of their radicalism or extremism. After WW II nacy ideology can not be popular enough in Ukraine. Of course, it can not be eliminated totally from any society, there are nacy groups and nationalists party all around the world. In many European countries they are represented in parliaments but it doesnt mean that all these countries are caught by fascists or extremists. Russian propaganda tries to represent VOX POPULI as the voice of Ukrainian extremists, nationalists, fascists which indeed are the tiny marginal groups of Ukrainian society. Russians are not ready to comprehend the reality and reconcile with the very clear fact: the vast majority of Ukrainian people all around Ukraine eagers to live in European, democratic state where human rights and freedoms are respected and protected. Taking into consideration the things mentioned above it becomes evident that many initiated by Russia talks concerning the terrible differences between different regions of Ukraine, severe social clashes and possible split of Ukraine are nonsense. Indeed the idea to split Ukraine is not popular among Ukrainian citizens. For example, the latest sociological data show that even now (!) no more than 41% of inhabitants in Crimea would like to separate the peninsula from Ukraine. The vast majority of Ukrainian citizens (regardless to their ethnical origination) supports the sovereignty and integrity of the state in current border. I have no doubt that President Putin knows it quit well. But it doesnt mean that he will stop all his attempts to fuel talks about the splited country or the defense of Russian minority. His aim to animate all these pure fictions, which were created in Kremlin to provide Putin with an ideological ground for the Russian military expansion to Ukraine. Putin does his best to fuel all mentioned above differences to cause clashes. I am not sure that Russia is ready to attack Ukraine directly and openly. It is evident that any full scale military conflict between Ukraine and Russia will cause terrible consequences not only for both counties but for the whole world. But I am sure that Putin will continue to interfere to Ukraine and provoke conflicts there. Therefore I have no doubt that the conflict in Crimea is not over. It is to be continued. Maybe not only in Crimea. Russia will use all leverages it has to make pressure on Ukraine. Thus the world leaders need clear understanding that to stop Russia from direct military invasion to Ukraine is not enough. Putin has enough leverages to make war against peace in Ukraine. The Russian military force is not the only one and not the best one of all things which can be used by Putin against Ukraine. World powers should understand it and do their best not let Russia conduct invisible cold war in Ukraine and against Ukraine. Other way, the war in Europe is not prevented, but just delayed. What does Putin need? I am sure that Putin plays in Crimea not against Ukraine but mostly against the world. Of course, Ukraine is very important for Russia strategy in many reasons. But I guess that Russians have much more crucial issues to negotiate with USA, EU, China, NATO etc. I can not know it exactly but I am almost sure that Putin will put on the table for the negotiation on Ukrainian issues such extra-things as oil prices, natural gas pipelines, the EU and NATO extension, (especially the possibility of the Ukrainian membership in NATO and EU), an access to the Ukrainian strategic objects (for example in nuclear energy production or air space exploration, rocket construction etc.), the system of NMD in Europe etc. So I suppose that Putin mostly bluffs in Ukraine to use it in his game against superpowers. But if this bluff helps him to win something in this game, Putin will continue his policy of terrifying neighbors and threatening the world. Valentine Gladkykh
Posted on: Wed, 19 Mar 2014 11:26:30 +0000
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