Todays Severe weather NONE T-storms West and South see maps livewxradar/modules.php?name=Content&pa=showpage&pid=37 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0231 PM CDT TUE MAR 25 2014 VALID 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... CONVECTION WILL REMAIN QUITE ISOLATED ACROSS THREE DISTINCT REGIONS OF THE CONUS THE REST OF THE PERIOD. MOSTLY SHALLOW CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED LIGHTNING HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ACROSS SOUTH FL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STRONG HEATING ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST HAS CONTRIBUTED TO STEEP LAPSE RATES. VISIBLE CONVECTION IS NOW DEEPENING ACROSS SERN AZ/SWRN NM WITHIN FAVORABLE REGION OF ASCENT AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS BEGINNING TO VEER ALONG THE ORE COAST AND THIS IS A REFLECTION OF MORE BUOYANT AIR MASS THAT SHOULD SPREAD INLAND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LIGHTNING IS NOTED WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION JUST OFF THE COAST ABOUT 20 NW OF OTH. OTHER SHALLOW CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD INTO WRN WA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ..DARROW.. 03/25/2014 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT TUE MAR 25 2014/ ...NRN CA TO PAC NW TODAY... A PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY OVER NRN CA/WA/ORE. SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A SWATH OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WITH THE MIDLEVEL THERMAL TROUGH OFFSHORE...WHERE ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED SPORADICALLY. THE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK BUOYANCY WILL SPREAD INLAND TODAY...BRINGING A RISK FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM COASTAL NRN CA AND THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY NWD INTO WA/ORE. ...AZ/NM/W TX THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... A SRN STREAM MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER NRN BAJA WILL MOVE EWD TO FAR W TX/SE NM BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS A LARGER-SCALE TROUGH PROGRESSES INLAND OVER THE PAC COAST. PREEXISTING STEEP LAPSE RATES...PLUS AN INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL MOISTURE/ASCENT SPREADING NEWD FROM NRN MEXICO...WILL SUPPORT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM E CENTRAL/SE AZ INTO W/SW NM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST AND SPREAD EWD/NEWD TO W TX OVERNIGHT IN A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME WITH WEAK BUOYANCY. ...S FL TODAY... THE PRIMARY RISK FOR DEEP CONVECTION HAS ALREADY SHIFTED SWD INTO THE FL STRAITS WITH THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT. THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT IS LOCATED FARTHER N ACROSS CENTRAL FL...AND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO TO FORM THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ...COASTAL NC TODAY... CYCLOGENESIS IS UNDERWAY WELL S OF THE NC COAST. HOWEVER...SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST AS ASCENT STRENGTHENS WITH THE APPROACH OF AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE TN VALLEY. ...NRN KY/OH THIS AFTERNOON... 500 MB TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -36 TO -38 C WILL OVERSPREAD THE OH VALLEY TODAY...N OF STRENGTHENING SPEED MAX OVER THE TN VALLEY. THE COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT STEEP LAPSE RATES BELOW THE 500 MB LEVEL...AND WEAK SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR IN THE ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A REINFORCING COLD FRONTAL SURGE MOVING EWD FROM INDIANA. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BE QUITE COLD AND THE RISK FOR CHARGE SEPARATION/LIGHTNING APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT ADDING A THUNDERSTORM AREA.
Posted on: Tue, 25 Mar 2014 21:13:53 +0000