Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Advice #2 TROPICAL LOW 13U 4:21 PM EST March 7 2014 ============================================= At 4:00 PM EST, Tropical Low (1002 hPa) located at 14.9S 150.7E or 570 km east northeast of Cairns and 640 km northeast of Townsville has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving west at 10 knots. Dvorak Intensity T1.0/1.5/S0.0/24 HRS The tropical low is expected to move in a west-southwest direction tonight before adopting a south-southwest track during Saturday. The tropical low is expected to intensify into the weekend and it is currently anticipated it will form into a tropical cyclone on Sunday and possibly cross the Herbert and Lower Burdekin coast on Monday. GALES may develop about coastal and island communities between Cairns and Mackay late Saturday or during Sunday. Heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is possible about coastal and nearby adjacent inland areas between Cooktown and Mackay from late Saturday and should persist into Sunday. Forecast and Intensity ======================== 12 HRS 15.2S 149.2E - 30 knots (Tropical Low) 24 HRS 15.9S 147.8E - 30 knots (Tropical Low) 48 HRS 18.3S 146.9E - 40 knots (CAT 1) 72 HRS 20.1S 147.9E - 30 knots (Tropical Low) Additional Information ======================= Dvorak analysis based on a curved band pattern with a 0.2 degree wrap, giving a DT of 1.0. MT and PT give 1.5 and 1.0 respectively. FT based on PT as DT is not completely clear. The location of the estimated low level center is rated as poor due to the fact there appears to be two centers situated amongst the cloud mass developing in the Coral Sea. It is anticipated that one of these low level centers will become the primary system that all the models are forming into a tropical cyclone over the weekend. The tropical low has been moving in a westwards direction over the last 24 hours, but it is expected that it should adopt more of a south-southwest track over the weekend under the influence of a mid-level high situated near the Solomon Islands as the system becomes more vertically stacked. The tropical low has developed at a very slow rate over the past few days, but the system is expected to move into an area of decreased vertical wind shear and should be injected with a pulse of monsoonal flow to the north of the system over the weekend, which should aid development.
Posted on: Fri, 07 Mar 2014 13:38:36 +0000
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