Tropical SATELLITE ANALYSIS OF Gulf Of Mexico - Caribbean Sea image shows at 1630 Z OCT 9 2014 the following: -------------------------Developing Tropical Cyclones--------------------------- 21.00 N 62.00 W Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands are associated with a broad surface low pressure area and an upper-level low. Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for gradual development of this system as a tropical or subtropical cyclone during the next few days while the surface low moves northwestward or north-northwestward at about 10 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. -------------------------------THREE Tropical Waves-------------------------------- One Tropical wave that is located at 23.00 N 95.00 W to 18.00 N 98.00 W One Tropical wave that is located at 18.00 N 86.00 W to 10.00 N 88.00 W One Tropical wave that is located at 19.00 N 71.00 W to 8.00 N 77.00 W -------------------------------Gulf Of Mexico-------------------------------- A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPANS THE AREA FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ABOUT 180 NM TO THE EAST OF THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE TROUGH IS NEAR 26N84W. A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE TROUGH IS NEAR 22N93W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND LOCALLY STRONG ARE WITHIN 240 NM TO 420 NM TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN THE SAME DISTANCES TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. -------------------------------CARIBBEAN SEA-------------------------------- SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 21N60W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 6N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 14N57W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 17N60W AND 14N61W. PLEASE SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT THIS SURFACE LOW. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS BERMUDA...TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N79W...TO A SECOND 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN FLORIDA NEAR 31N84W...ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO 26N96W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 23N94W...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 95W AND 96W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...LOW CLOUD CEILING REPORTS... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT KGBK...KGHB... AND AT KIPN. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT PORT ISABEL IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...IN VICTORIA TEXAS. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS WITH FOG COVER TOMBALL... CONROE...AND HUNTSVILLE IN TEXAS. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER SOUTHERN/COASTAL SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA...AND IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE TO 2 MILES OR LESS WITH FOG COVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM PERRY WESTWARD...AND IN BROOKSVILLE. FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COASTAL COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W... TOWARD THE COASTS OF EASTERN HONDURAS/NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA... BEYOND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N FROM 74W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 86W IN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA AND THE COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS FROM 4N TO 13N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...INCLUDING IN LAKE MARACAIBO IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. -------------------------------HISPANIOLA-------------------------------- MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA... WITH A 21N61W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE WIND FLOW IS MOSTLY NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS HISPANIOLA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SURROUNDS HISPANIOLA. CLOUD CONDITIONS/PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THIS TIME AT VARIOUS SITES THAT ARE AROUND THE ISLAND. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT THE CURRENT RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO COVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THAT THE CURRENT TROUGH WILL STAY IN PLACE ALSO. NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT IS NEAR THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS...AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CUBA RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. THE INVERTED TROUGH EVENTUALLY WILL BREAK DOWN...GIVING EASTERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE 48- HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. -------------------------------ATLANTIC OCEAN-------------------------------- A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO 27N24W 23N44W AND 22N50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 15 NM TO 20 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N21W 28N31W 26N36W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 42W AND 44W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 40W AND 48W. A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 30N40W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 52W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS BERMUDA...TO A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N79W...TO A SECOND 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN FLORIDA NEAR 31N84W...ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO 26N96W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS NEAR 22N99W.
Posted on: Thu, 09 Oct 2014 18:13:19 +0000
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