Tropical Storm Bertha, at the 11:00AM update, has max winds of 45 Knots/50 MPH, a central pressure of 1008 MB, moving west-northwest at 18 knots/21 mph. As I stated last night, Bertha intensified as it exited a lot of the influence of the dry air from the Saharan Air Layer. The environment that Bertha is in is marginal. The air has some moisture, but it is still dealing with dry air to its north and west, you can see this on the Water vapor satellite image and the Saharan Air Layer analysis . Wind shear is moderate to high out of the west. Water temps are 82-83 degrees F. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for Barbados, the central Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. The higher shear will drop somewhat by tomorrow afternoon. But the storm will still be dealing with less than ideal conditions, with moderate shear and dry air to deal to deal with. As Ive been saying for quite a few days, Bertha would struggle in the Caribbean. It also has other problems, because it took so long to become a tropical storm, it has the higher terrain of Puerto Rico and or the Dominican Republic to contend with. The higher terrain might disrupt any intensification that will try to take place. All of these factors should keep Bertha from achieving hurricane status. The storm should be near the Bahamas by Sunday. As for the U.S. East Coast, it still looks like the Trough will recurve Bertha East of Florida and the East Coast, So right now, it looks like Berthas impact on the Mid Atlantic and Northeast will be minimal.
Posted on: Fri, 01 Aug 2014 16:34:33 +0000
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